Catching up on spring injuries, Part 1

NOTE: This column focuses on injury analysis, so we don't cover the progress of every injured player. We try to highlight the key fantasy contributors, unusual injuries, or situations where the official projected return is variable or not given. Players whose progress is proceeding as expected are very well covered by fantasy news sources; we'll tend to leave those players alone unless we have something we want to add to the news coverage. 

Credit for the Worry-O-Meter goes to Dr. Jim Ferretti (Twitter: @TFSDoc):

     1 – “No problemo”
     2 – “I’ll be back”
     3 – “I (might) be back”
     4 – “I (probably won’t) be back”
     5 – “Hasta la vista, baby”

 

What a difference a day makes. We were ready to finalize this on Wednesday, but by Thursday morning, we had major updates on Cole, Williams, and Judge. 

One of the true rites of spring is players getting hurt. In the past couple of weeks, we have seen a significant number of injuries, both large and small, that could have impact past opening day. Here, we'll catch up on many of them. Note that while we may touch on a couple of significant situations where there is a definite lack of information, we will generally avoid injury situations that require a lot of speculation to analyze. However, we will have another column next week to catch up, and then re-start our traditional Wed/Sat/Mon schedule come March 27.

Devin Williams (RHP, MIL) – Stress fractures, back (3/8/24)
He has stress fractures on both sides of the spinal column. Though there's no information as to whether they're in the same vertebrae, it's a reasonable assumption. The fractures are in the pars interarticularis, which is best described as the piece that connects one of the protrusions from the spine to the main body. If you really need to see it, you can check out this image. The bottom line is that he's expected to be shut down for six weeks, followed by six weeks of rehab and ramp-up. That would bring him back in early June. However, stress fractures are not always easily projected, and there's a significant risk that he's not ready to throw in six weeks. The March 12 Playing Time Today has some initial thoughts about the Brewers' closer role.
2024 Impact: High risk of missing projected return
Est. Return: Mid-June
Worry-O-Meter: 3.5

Taj Bradley (RHP, TAM) – R pectoral strain (3/12/24)
Not serious, but it will likely sideline him for a week or two, meaning a delayed start to the season by 1-2 weeks.
2024 Impact: Likely minimal
Est. Return: Mid-April
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) – R elbow injury (3/10/24)
He most likely has a UCL tear. While the MRI hasn't shown any damage, minor tears can be extremely difficult to detect. (Here is a great article that discusses the limitations of MRI imaging, including a recollection that Lewis Yocum, one of the pioneers of Tommy John surgery (TJS), claimed that in 40% of his TJS patients, the MRI showed no damage.) Everything else suggests a UCL tear, including the fact that the team is treating it like a UCL tear. Very small tears can heal on their own, so there's some reason for optimism if you have Cole, but there's a risk he will need surgery (though not necessarily Tommy John). He'll take some time off to see how his elbow reacts. The team is hoping for a May/June return. If he's still having issues then, we'd expect surgery to be the next step.
2024 Impact: Very high risk
Est. Return: May/June, maybe
Worry-O-Meter: 3.5

Edward Cabrera (RHP, MIA) – R shoulder, impingement (3/11/24)
This doesn’t sound terribly serious, but it will keep him off the mound for a couple of weeks, so he won’t be ready for Opening Day.
2024 Impact: Elevated risk
Est. Return: Mid-/late April
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) – Oblique strain/Toe pain (3/11/24)
The Yankees think he'll be ready for Opening Day, but we're not so sure. The oblique strain seems minor, but even minor oblique strains can take time to heal. The toe now seems like it will be an ongoing problem. They did say that he'd be “monitored” with the toe, but this is the first we're hearing of residual pain. As a reminder, he had a bad case of turf toe in 2023, which is essentially a sprain and rarely has lasting effects. We suspect that there was some bone damage as well (maybe an avulsion fracture). We can't predict how much time the toe might cost him, but it does demonstrate Judge’s risk. He’s a very, very large man, and is approaching his mid-30s. Few players of his size have held up under such circumstances.
2024 Impact: Risk of missing Opening Day; High risk overall, including potential reduced production
Est. Return: Early April (Opening Day is possible)
Worry-O-Meter: 2.5

Lucas Giolito (RHP, BOS) – R elbow, InternalBrace procedure (3/5/24)
We normally don’t cover Tommy John surgeries, but this wasn't Tommy John (despite many in the media calling it such, or “the other Tommy John”). In TJS, the ligament is removed and replaced. With InternalBrace, a mesh is inserted around the ligament to hold it in place, providing support and facilitating healing. The procedure theoretically cuts recovery time in half, though teams have been reluctant to push players back. If they follow the proper timeline, though, he should be 100% ready to go by Opening Day 2025
2024 Impact: Out
Est. Return: Early 2025, most likely
Worry-O-Meter: 5

Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF, STL) – R wrist, inflammation (ongoing)
He has pain in his right wrist, on which he had off-season surgery. He’s seen a couple of specialists, and both have confirmed that it’s general inflammation and not a repeat of his previous injury. He’ll likely rest for another week or so, then see how he’s feeling. He won’t make Opening Day, but there’s only a small chance the injury keeps him out past the end of April.
2024 Impact: Elevated risk; Potential for reduced output
Est. Return: Mid-/late April (best estimate)
Worry-O-Meter: 2.5

Kevin Gausman (RHP, TOR) – R shoulder, fatigue (3/2/24)
He’s working his way back, and this looks like a fairly normal spring training issue. We expect he’ll be ready by Opening Day.
2024 Impact: Elevated risk
Est. Return: Opening Day
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Lars Nootbaar (OF, STL) – Fractured ribs (3/7/24)
The fractures are non-displaced, so it’s just rest and pain for him. He’s likely to miss Opening Day, though they “haven’t ruled him out.” We’d expect his IL stint to be a short one, though.
2024 Impact: Likely minimal
Est. Return: Early/mid-April
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, TEX) – R oblique strain (3/7/24)
Ah, the dreaded oblique strain. This will keep him out past Opening Day, though a minimum IL stay is a definite possibility.
2024 Impact: Elevated risk; Risk of recurrence
Est. Return: Early/mid-April
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Nick Lodolo (LHP, CIN) – L tibia discomfort (Ongoing)
He still has some pain and discomfort in his leg (two stress reactions in 2023), but the doctors aren’t worried, so his pre-season is back on track. They’ll skip his start the first time through the rotation, but he’s expected to get back on the mound the second week of the season.
2024 Impact: High risk
Est. Return: Early April
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Yasmani Grandal (C, PIT) – Plantar fasciitis (Unknown)
Note: this write-up is primarily for GMs who have Henry Davis (OF, PIT) rostered and can’t wait for him to have catcher eligibility.
He’s able to hit and catch, but not run. Fasciitis is a tricky injury and requires physical therapy, stretching, and rest. There’s no quick fix and trying to play through it can make it worse. They’re expecting him to be ready for Opening Day, but we think that’s very up in the air at this point. 
2024 Impact: Potential for longer recovery than projected
Est. Return: Opening Day, maybe
Worry-O-Meter: 2

Opening Day missers?

Here’s a list of players who are on their way back, but probably won’t be ready for Opening Day:

David Bednar (RHP, PIT)
Wade Miley (LHP, MIL)
Corey Seager (SS, TEX)
Alex Cobb (RHP, SF)
Vaughn Grissom (SS, BOS)
Ji Hwan Bae (2B/OF, PIT)

 

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