Spring training speculations, 2024

Oh, spring training. We wait for it all winter, we're stoked when it's finally here, and then we scream "DON'T OVERREACT" once we see the returns.

But under the "20% play" disclaimer we slap at the end of the Speculator each week, overreact we will. We'll check in on some team-level trends, hitters vying for playing time, and pitchers flashing significant strikeout, walk, or velocity changes thus far.

 

Hitters: Stolen Base Team Leaders

It's always tough to separate spring news from noise, so new LAA manager Ron Washington's early proclamation that he wants his team to run more might be met with a fair dose of skepticism.

He's backing it up on the field though, as LAA leads all MLB teams in one of the more important spring training stats: stolen base attempt rate (SBA%). Here are the top then teams in SBA% through Sunday's games:

TEAM	SB	CS	SBA%
LAA	30	12	25.3
CIN	24	7	23.1
COL	21	12	19.4
CHW	21	6	17.4
MIL	18	10	17.3
WSN	22	5	17.0
TBR	17	7	16.8
SEA	22	5	16.0
CLE	14	6	14.1
BOS	16	8	13.0

If the early aggressiveness sticks, look for some potentially strong SB numbers from LAAers Luis Rengifo, Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, and maybe even… Mike Trout? 

CIN's perch near the top of the spring SBA% board is also notable since they have several batters projected for double-digit bags. Filtering by team and sorting by SB in our handy new 2024 Hitter Projection tool:

General takeaway: be speculatively optimistic about hitters' SB projections from teams atop the spring SBA% leaderboard above.

 

Hitters: PA leaders

Individual hitter results should almost be completely ignored—particularly for established veterans—but it's valuable to see which hitters fighting for jobs are getting the longest looks. 

Sal Frelick (OF, MIL) has 33 plate appearances so far; the most of any MIL batter. An interesting wrinkle is that a decent chunk of Frelick's playing time has come at third base, which would help alleviate an outfield logjam and open up playing time for both Frelick and Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL), both of whom are swapping spots atop the order this spring. Frelick is a former first-round pick entering his age-23 season, and if a team is trying to find ways to get a talented young bat in the lineup, you should probably take notice.

Two hitters with Top-5 spring PA totals and Top-12 spots on our 2024 HQ100 prospect list are James Wood (OF, WAS) and Coby Mayo (3B, BAL). Wood, our tenth-ranked prospect entering the season, is an early 11-for-30 with 3 HR, 1 SB, and nearly as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7). Playing time manipulation probably wins out and Wood starts in the minors, but with 323 AB at Double-A last year, a hot spring performance, and some injuries in WAS' outfield, there's an outside shot at early playing time for one of the biggest raw power bats in minors.

Like Wood, Mayo is not only playing often, but playing well (10-for-30, 4:6 BB:K) as he attempts to break into a crowded BAL infield. Mayo has a ton of high-minors experience with 415 career AB at Double-A and 217 AB at Triple-A last season. Mayo was our #12 overall prospect, carries a 9D prospect rating, and while he's seen most of his reps at third base this spring, has additional paths to playing time at 1B and OF. Even if Mayo doesn't break camp with the team, the long look and strong spring performance mean he could get called up in short order.

Taylor Ward (OF, LAA) suffered a brutal HBP (face) resulting in surgery to address multiple facial fractures last August. Ward has a starting spot locked up, but it was fair to wonder how he might look coming off such a gruesome injury. Ward's relatively heavy workload (and a 5:7 BB:K with 9 hits in 29 AB) is a step in the right direction for a potential rebound campaign.

Eloy Jiménez (DH, CHW) leads all White Sox with 32 plate appearances (and 15 hits!) through Sunday's games. A .469 batting average is nice and all, but Jiménez's early volume is a nice sign he's healthy. So far so good from the closing line in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster "When he's right, 30-HR upside remains intact".

 

Pitchers: Rotation auditions

A career reliever in the majors, A.J. Puk (LHP, MIA) moved back to the rotation this spring. Puk's lengthy injury gives us our doubts, but he's among the spring leaders with 15 strikeouts in just 8.1 IP, most recently going 3.1 innings in a start on March 10. Puk hasn't thrown 70 professional IP in a season since 2017, so the odds of him reaching a full SP workload seem slim, but his excellent career skills (3.56 xERA, 21% K-BB%, 171 BPV) make for a high-upside speculation while healthy and in the rotation.

Teammate Ryan Weathers (LHP, MIA) is pitching his way into the MIA rotation thanks to a bevy of strikeouts (17; second-most among all pitchers) and job openings among his peers (Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera shoulder injuries; Max Meyer optioned to Triple-A). Weathers has some admittedly awful career skills (5.14 xERA, 51 BPV), but his average fastball velocity is up to 96 mph (career 94.1 mph), and he's paired all those strikeouts with just 3 BB and 2 ER. Keep expectations low, but a speculative flyer here makes a ton of sense.

Remember Tylor Megill (RHP, NYM)? At least the good version who posted a 140+ BPV and sub-4.00 xERA across 2021-22? He might be back, as the 28-year-old has a 15/2 K/BB with just 2 ER in 12 IP. He's also missing a ton of bats (18% SwK) with the same mid-90s fastball velocity we've seen in previous seasons. Megill likely opens the season in NYM's rotation thanks to Kodai Senga's shoulder injury. The spring performance combined with his previous success should at least put Megill on your speculative radar.

 

Pitchers: Health Check

Sometimes we just need to see established starters make it through spring training unscathed and wake up healthy on Opening Day. Here's a quick hit of SP with injury concerns who not only are healthy at the moment, but have also looked good as they ramp up:

Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) is coming off a shoulder injury, but has been sharp with an 11/3 K/BB in 8 innings and looks ready to go. Ditto Nestor Cortes (LHP, NYY), who had even more severe shoulder issues but has logged 10 IP (13/2 K/BB) despite giving up 9 ER so far. 

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, TEX) and Yu Darvish (RHP, SD) are coming off forearm and elbow injuries, respectively, but so far have made it through Cactus League appearances unscathed. Eovaldi might be Texas' Opening Day starter while Darvish has a 10/1 K/BB in 9.1 IP. Who knows how long either one stays healthy, but there's mucho profit potential at their 200+ ADPs if their spring health carries long into the regular season. 

Pricier starters Tyler Glasnow (RHP, LA) and Tarik Skubal (LHP, DET) have both been injury-free this spring. Glasnow struck out eight without giving up a hit in his most recent start, while Skubal threw 60 pitches in a simulated game on March 11. Glasnow has already been named LA's starter in Korea on March 20. Both look to be all-systems-go while presumably "safer" starter Gerrit Cole (elbow) is out for Opening Day. Pitcher injuries, man…

 

 

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.