Prospect hitters poised for 2024 breakouts
Mar 16 2024
Hope springs eternal with the start of the baseball season on the horizon. This year, our Thursday space will be dedicated once again to live looks for the Eyes Have It series. Those articles will be where I first discuss most prospects I see this season, especially those prospects who are breaking out or falling off.
We’ve tweaked the format of the Eyes Have It Podcast for 204; I will be taking over as the sole host. My former co-host, Brent Hershey will be a guest on 7 episodes during the season, including every first episode of the month and the Futures Game episode. I will have a guest on with me every week, discussing prospect live looks and/or trends in the fantasy industry. My first guest, the week of March 25th will be Geoff Pontes from Baseball America. He will have a slew of Spring Training looks to share with everyone.
Since I missed First Pitch Florida due to illness, I have no live looks to talk about. Instead, we pivot to hitters poised for a prospect breakout in 2024. The criteria here is simple. Anyone who didn’t make the HQ100 this off-season is eligible for inclusion. Let’s check out the 2024 breakout prospect hitters:
2024 Draft Prospects
Arjun Nimmala (SS, TOR)
Colin Houck (SS, NYM)
Enrique Bradfield Jr. (OF, BAL)
George Lombard (SS, NYY)
Tai Peete (SS, SEA)
Last year’s draft was historic in the quality of players, especially from the college ranks. In most years, Arjun Nimmala and George Lombard Jr. would have garnered Top 10-to-15 draft interest as prep players. Nimmala is especially intriguing, after an impressive nine-game sample in rookie ball, walking 14 times and flexing his power potential. He has a lean body now. However, don’t be fooled by his frame, he’s strong and already hits the ball hard in the air, which is rare for prep bats usually drafted towards the end of the first round. Nimmala already answers questions about position (he'll stick at SS), fundamentally sound and possesses advanced understanding of the zone. His swing, which is compact, adjusts well in the zone with an impact over contact approach. Nimmala, noted for his reactions and footwork on defense, should also play up average footspeed on the base paths, contributing to double-digit SB ability early in his career.
Lombard Jr. is the son of former MLB OF and longtime coach George Lombard. Like Nimmala, Lombard is strong despite a lean frame, which he has plenty of room left to grow into. Lombard had a dazzling short-sample size debut in rookie ball and Low-A after the draft last year. At the plate, he’s quiet, with a short and compact swing. Also, like Nimmala, he gets to loft at a relatively young age. The power upside isn’t as great as Nimmala. However, Lombard possesses above-average raw power with a better hit tool profile. Likely, at projection, Lombard is a solid across-the-board performer in fantasy from the SS position.
Enrique Bradfield Jr. is the only college hitter on this list. Taken by the Orioles in the first round, Bradfield’s debut took him all the way up to High-A. It’s a hit/speed profile. The speed is the true calling card with Bradfield possessing 80-grade speed (at the top of the 20-80 scouting scale). He stole 25 bases in 25 professional games last summer. Bradfield gets on base at a high clip also. In 110 professional plate appearances, Bradfield sported a .473 OBP, walking more than striking out. This was a theme for his entire career at Vanderbilt. He is a high contact bat with an exceptional eye who is darling for most formats because of his ability to get on base and steal.
Colin Houck and Tai Peete were both prep bats out of Georgia last year. Houck, who had division 1 offers to play quarterback in college, quit football after his junior season to concentrate on baseball full-time. Because of this, Houck is much further away from contributing, compared to Nimmala and Lombard. It’s above-average tools across-the-board who is relatively raw at the plate. Most scouts I’ve spoken to believe he may stick at SS but his skillset may be better utilized at 3B.
Peete was a 2-way performer in high school. His injured his arm in August of 2022, and never pitched during the spring. In fact, scouts tell me he never really let any throws go last year and compensated by throwing from a different angle. While how he throws isn’t traditionally relevant in fantasy, from my own looks, he fits best at 3B, where arm strength is a premium. However, there is talk of moving Peete to the OF. He’s not as advanced at the plate as Nimmala and Lombard. Other than Nimmala, Peete has the highest offensive upside of the prep hitters listed because of how the power plays, which could be plus at projection. He is also a plus runner.
2025 IFA Signings
Jose Perdomo (SS, ATL)
Leo De Vries (SS, SD)
Traditionally, I do not put recently signed International Free Agents (IFA) in my coverage like this, before they debut as professionals. However, MLB teams are getting precise on the big-ticket players in IFA. Jose Perdomo and Leo De Vries are the two biggest prospects from this year’s class. Perdomo is already the best position player prospect in the Braves farm system. De Vries has already garnered Top 100 consideration at other sites and is regarded as the best prospect in baseball. I won’t pretend to know anything about these prospects since they’ve yet to debut and everyone else is using information circulated by the mainstream prospect websites. However, going back a number of years, the top signing bonuses have mostly paid dividends for organizations. For the first time, I’m recommending targeting players like this from the international ranks, based solely on their signing bonus rank.
A-Ball Studs
Cam Collier (3B, CIN)
Jefferson Rojas (SS, CHC)
Luis Baez (OF, HOU)
Cam Collier and Luis Baez are the most known commodities here. Collier, a former 1st round pick in the 2022 draft and son of former MLB player Lou, struggled during his full-season debut in 2023. Had he not reclassified multiple times, Collier’s draft year would have been 2024. He was young for the Florida State League. He impressed scouts and analysis with his ability to get to barrel. He consistently hit the ball hard, mostly on the ground. So far in spring training, he has transformed his swing trajectory and has started to get to loft, which bodes well for a prospect breakout.
Baez was Mr. Exit Velocity in Florida last spring, first, during extended spring training and then during his Florida Complex League debut. He struggled with pitch selection when pushed up to Low-A the last two months of the season. The power is plus-plus raw power. However, the hit tool, because of aggressiveness and a slower operation, is a below-average tool. The Astros have a great reputation coaching both weaknesses out of hitters. Hopefully, they can help Baez because Baez has the greatest potential for fantasy managers than anyone else on this list, even greater upside than Nimmala and Collier.
Jefferson Rojas reminds me of a former Cubs farmhand and present Cubs contributor, Christopher Morel. I scouted Rojas last season and thought, at the plate, he looked a lot like Morel at the same point in development. While Morel was never a top 100 prospect, because of his success, I expect Rojas to emerge into the top 100 this season. He has above-average power potential to go with feel for contact. Because a hitch exists in his load, his pitch reactions need refinement. However, his plus bat speed makes up for the delay the hitch causes reaction to pitches. Rojas' ability to hit to all fields and get to power should make him an exciting player for a fantasy manager to roster.
