2024 All-Value Team

NOTE: Our preseason Market Pulse column is an exercise in identifying the valuation gaps between the "popular" market (as reflected in Average Draft Position, or "ADP") and BaseballHQ.com. This is an exercise in relative valuation, not absolute. 

Each hitter is being considered at his scarcest qualified position (in order: C/DH, SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, OF), as it is the scarcest eligible position that typically drives fantasy value. If a player is not listed here, it's likely that he qualifies at a scarcer position, or he's not in the ADP Top 500-600 (it's a bit fluid). The rankings are a risk-and position-adjusted estimate using current BaseballHQ.com projections. It is a purely quantitative ranking, with no specific consideration of "upside" (aside from reliability scores). The BaseballHQ dollar values are position adjusted, with some adjustment for risk. Average auction values are approximate. These are not the "official" BaseballHQ.com straight draft rankings, but they should be close.

A positive number in the "Diff" column indicates a player that BaseballHQ.com ranks higher than the "market," and a negative number indicates we have the player ranked lower, based on Average Draft Position (ADP). The list is split into tiers, based on ADP. ADP is based on National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Draft Champions leagues over the past four weeks. We may extend the number of weeks to get a minimum number of drafts. Any references to number of rounds assumes a 15-team mixed league.

NFBC ADP | Unofficial Rankings

This is our annual exercise in putting together a roster of “value” players. The goal is to create a team whose aggregate value greatly exceeds the average auction value (AAV). We think we've done it.

We tried to avoid players who the market is undervaluing due to high risks. While injury risk was our focus, we did somewhat consider other risks as well. In all, we ended with one player who we would consider very high risk, but closers, you know?

So here it is… unless you skipped this part and went right to the table.

2024 All-Value Team
POS	Hitter	Tm	Rel	HQ$	AAV	Diff	HQ Rank	ADP	Diff
C	Moreno, Gabriel	ARI	ABD	13	9	4	117	152	35
C	Realmuto, J.T.	PHI	AAB	18	16	2	59	73	14
1B	Drury, Brandon	LAA	BAC	13	6	7	119	216	97
3B	Machado, Manny	SD	AAD	23	18	5	31	63	32
CI	Diaz, Yandy	TB	BAD	16	10	6	85	137	52
2B	Garcia, Luis	WSH	AAA	10	1	9	148	398	250
SS	Abrams, CJ	WSH	AAB	27	22	5	16	40	24
MI	Arcia, Orlando	ATL	BAB	11	2	9	145	327	182
OF	Ruiz, Esteury	OAK	BAC	21	11	10	44	126	82
OF	Canha, Mark	DET	BAA	10	1	9	174	416	242
OF	McCormick, Chas	HOU	BAB	16	8	8	79	170	91
OF	Suzuki, Seiya	CHI	BAD	20	12	8	49	111	62
OF	Harris II, Michael	ATL	AAA	31	26	5	9	27	18
UT	Nimmo, Brandon	NYM	CAA	15	6	9	109	202	93
	Totals			$244	$148	$96
POS	Pitcher	Tm	Rel	HQ$	AAV	Diff	HQ Rank	ADP	Diff
SP	Rodriguez, Grayson	BAL	ADD	23	18	5	34	65	31
SP	Kirby, George	SEA	ABA	27	24	3	17	33	16
SP	Pivetta, Nick	BOS	AAA	12	9	3	124	164	40
SP	Imanaga, Shota	CHI	AAC	11	7	4	150	183	33
SP	Allen, Logan	CLE	ADB	5	1	4	267	341	74
SP	Woo, Bryan	SEA	BFF	11	8	3	151	176	25
RP	Nardi, Andrew	MIA	BDB	10	1	9	166	477	311
RP	Ginkel, Kevin	ARI	ADC	7	1	6	225	484	259
RP	Dominguez, Seranthony*	PHI	FCF	1	1	-	382	642	260
	Totals			$107	$70	$37
	Grand Total			$351	$218	$133

* Seranthony Domínguez (RHP, PHI) doesn't pass our health filter, but he was the only RP “bargain” projected for 15+ saves.

This is a great start, providing some strong production with $42 of budget left to spare. Let's see how the team is projected to perform.

HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
262	1,020	1,073	218	.269
W	Sv	ERA	WHIP	K
80	20	3.48	1.15	1,182

This team is a serious contender, coming close to our targets in almost every stat. However, the hitter balance is off, with too many SB and not enough HR and RBI. Plus, we need more saves. Let's fix that by swapping out Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI), Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL), Michael Harris (OF, ATL), Andrew Nardi (LHP, MIA), and Kevin Ginkel (RHP, ARI), for William Contreras (C, MIL), Xander Bogaerts (SS, SD), Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU), Kenley Jansen (RHP, BOS), and Kyle Finnegan (RHP, WAS). That brings us to $256 in AAV, which gives us a little bit of a cushion at the draft table. Here's what that would look like in terms of projected stats:

HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
303	1,050	1,101	194	.270
W	Sv	ERA	WHIP	K
77	58	3.59	1.16	1,163

That puts us as competitive or better in every category. We have a couple of health risks, with Brandon Nimmo, Yordan Alvarez, and both Kenley Jansen and Seranthony Domínguez having a “C” health or worse. But overall, it's a low-risk squad.

The biggest challenge here was saves. We have pretty much anyone projected for 10+ saves going well over our value, but you can't ignore the category. You'll need to plan your saves accordingly. There are also strengths and weaknesses within each position group. We recommend this article to help you navigate those.

Let's look at some individual players:

Catcher bargains are hard to find, but J.T. Realmuto (C, PHI) is going a bit later/cheaper than he probably deserves. He's still among the top tier of catchers, though clearly surpassed as the #1 guy.

C honorable mentions: None. There's no honor among catchers.

Brandon Drury (1B/2B, LAA) puts up solid numbers in four categories. He's overlooked by the market, and has multi-position eligibility. Manny Machado (3B, SD) may be falling due to his off-season surgery, but it shouldn't affect his hitting, so he'll get AB at DH until he's ready to play in the field.

CI honorable mentions: Cody Bellinger (1B/OF. CHC), José Abreu (1B, HOU), Nolan Arenado (3B, STL)

CJ Abrams (SS, WAS) was a Top 10 prospect a couple of years ago, and he showed us why in 2023, especially in the second half (82% ct%, 108 xPX, 130 Spd, 95% SB%). A 25/50 season is within reach.

MI honorable mentions: Luis Arraez (2B, MIA), Luis García (2B, WAS), Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC)

Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK) stole 67 bases as a rookie in 2023. We know he has speed, and his 77% ct% shows good bat-to-ball skills. He displayed better power in the minor leagues (a .194 ISO in 2022), so double-digit HR could be next. There's a strong chance he's your 2024 SB leader. Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) took some time adapting to MLB, but he really came on in the second half. He's a relatively safe player who may still have another level in him.

OF honorable mentions: Masataka Yoshida (OF, BOS), Steven Kwan (OF, CLE), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF, ARI), Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL)

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP, BAL) was awful in his first stint in the majors, was demoted, and came back and showed us why he was a top prospect. The market seems to be wary of his season-long numbers, but he was much better in his second time up. Nick Pivetta (RHP, BOS) went to Driveline! Okay, that's not enough, but he saw his velocity tick up in the second half, and he replaced his splitter with a sweeper, seeing his K-BB% jump from 15% to 29% from first to second half. We're buying.

SP honorable mentions: Tanner Bibee (RHP, CLE), Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, TOR), A.J. Puk (LHP, MIA), Aaron Civale (RHP, TAM)

Reliever bargains just aren't there. Your best bet for cheap saves is to speculate on players who aren't “the guy” right now, with the hope that they pick up saves later on. Those guys include Trevor Megill or Abner Uribe in Milwaukee (if Devin Williams is going to miss time), Orion Kerkering (RHP, PHI), Robert Stephenson (RHP, LAA), Aroldis Chapman (if David Bednar is going to miss time), Trevor Gott (RHP, OAK), Andrew Nardi (LHP, MIA), Jason Adam (RHP, TAM), and Hunter Harvey (RHP, WAS). 

 

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