Relievers that cost one dollar or less
Mar 17 2024
These are the relievers who are listed at a buck or less in the BaseballHQ projections that could earn you a profit at that price. The relievers targeted in the end game are clumped into five groups (by minimum ADP), starting with min ADP 101-200 relievers.
This column likes the better skill sets over the more certain roles, but there are some ersatz closers in this first clump who made the list. Projections:
| min 101-200 ADP | Tm | SV | IP | xERA | WHIP | K% | K-BB% | HR9 | $V |
| Kerkering, Orion | PHI | 5 | 44 | 2.96 | 1.02 | 32% | 27% | 0.8 | -1 |
| Matsui, Yuki (L) | SD | 9 | 65 | 3.25 | 1.23 | 35% | 23% | 0.8 | -1 |
| Santos, Gregory | SEA | 4 | 58 | 3.41 | 1.28 | 23% | 16% | 0.3 | -6 |
| Barlow, Scott | CLE | 6 | 65 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 28% | 19% | 0.7 | -5 |
| Lange, Alex | DET | 16 | 58 | 3.91 | 1.40 | 28% | 14% | 0.9 | -2 |
| Neris, Hector | CHI | 5 | 65 | 3.92 | 1.20 | 30% | 20% | 1.1 | 1 |
| Miller, Mason | OAK | 7 | 58 | 4.06 | 1.17 | 31% | 19% | 0.8 | -2 |
| Smith, Will (L) | KC | 11 | 58 | 4.20 | 1.17 | 25% | 17% | 0.9 | -5 |
| Estevez, Carlos | LAA | 12 | 58 | 4.29 | 1.34 | 26% | 17% | 1.1 | -5 |
| Leclerc, Jose | TEX | 14 | 51 | 4.40 | 1.22 | 28% | 17% | 1.1 | -2 |
You can find Tigers closer Alex Lange (RHP, DET), Royals probable closer Will Smith (LHP, KC), Angels start-the-season closer Carlos Estévez (RHP, LAA), and Rangers maybe closer José Leclerc (RHP, TEX) in this list. These are also relievers seen as skills gambles because of weaker K%-BB%. In Lange's case, the 14% K%-BB% is quite problematic, But there is no obvious target in that pen. Will Vest (RHP, DET) has a better projected K%-BB% but he was not the choice when Lange was scuffling through last year. The others could hold the saves role for a time, but it is more likely than not that they will give it up at some point in 2024, and sooner than later. But at a dollar, you can throw a dart and see how it goes.
The more important names on this list are the elite skills relievers: Phillies reliever Orion Kerkering (RHP, PHI), Padres lefty Yuki Matsui (LHP, SD), and A's wunderkind Mason Miller (RHP, OAK). Kerkering starts the year behind elite skills lefty José Alvarado (LHP, PHI), but Kerkering is the real deal with a projected 32% K%, 27% K%-BB%, and xERA under 3.00. He can take over at any point, most probably when Alvarado is needed more in leverage against lefties or when Alvarado invariably gets hurt.
Matsui is the best projected skill set in the Padres bullpen. Robert Suarez (RHP, SD) will start the year as Padres closer, and he could run with it for a bit. But Matsui is better and will take over if Suarez stumbles. Even if Suarez doesn't stumble, Matsui will get the tough outs before the ninth, could vulture some chances and wins, and should get into a lot of holds, for leagues that value those.
Miller has the massive 31% K% and it should be higher than that, since the projection is built off of his starting record and he will get to amp it up as a reliever. The A's intend to use him as a multiple inning reliever. But given his superior skill set, he could find himself in leverage through different roles, including the last six, seven, eight outs of a game. As his deployment evolves, you can gauge better what his save total might become. In the meantime, his skill set is one you want, even as a reliever, whether he is getting saves or even if he is getting more innings than is typical.
It is not like Hector Neris (RHP, CHC) should be forgotten. He is battling it out with incumbent Adbert Alzolay (RHP, CHC) to be the Cubs closer and at worst would set up as a strong Plan B. Neris had an elite 2023.
The next clump (minimum ADP 201-300) contains David Robertson (RHP, TEX) and John Brebbia (RHP, CHW) and both are projected to grab saves for the Rangers and White Sox respectively. Brebbia is the better skill set at this point, Robertson is expected in a leverage role and perhaps as the closer. They bring some risk, as end gamers do, but for a dollar, there is no harm in finding out.
Here are the projections:
| min 201-300 ADP | Tm | SV | IP | xERA | WHIP | K% | K-BB% | HR9 | $V |
| Johnson, Pierce | ATL | 0 | 58 | 3.34 | 1.17 | 33% | 22% | 0.8 | -1 |
| Gallegos, Giovanny | STL | 9 | 58 | 3.64 | 1.07 | 30% | 24% | 1.2 | 1 |
| Minter, A.J. (L) | ATL | 4 | 58 | 3.66 | 1.24 | 30% | 21% | 0.6 | -3 |
| López, Reynaldo | ATL | 0 | 80 | 3.79 | 1.23 | 28% | 20% | 1.1 | 1 |
| Go, Woo Suk | SD | 5 | 65 | 3.88 | 1.34 | 29% | 17% | 1.1 | -2 |
| Hoffman, Jeff | PHI | 5 | 65 | 3.90 | 1.23 | 29% | 18% | 1.1 | 0 |
| Robertson, David | TEX | 16 | 65 | 4.00 | 1.26 | 27% | 17% | 0.8 | 1 |
| Brebbia, John | CWS | 14 | 58 | 4.18 | 1.22 | 28% | 19% | 1.1 | -1 |
There are three (!) Braves in this grouping: Pierce Johnson (RHP, ATL), A.J. Minter (LHP, ATL), and Reynaldo López (RHP, ATL). Johnson is expected to set up from the right side, Minter is expected to set up from the left side, and Lopez is either going to start or be a bulk innings reliever. If Raisel Iglesias (RHP, ATL) gets hurt, it will be Johnson and Minter filling in for saves. As for López, he is likely to be more effective as a bulk reliever than a starter with that projected 20% K%-BB% with the added innings.
The other three here, Cardinals stalwart Giovanny Gallegos (RHP, STL), Padres newcomer Woo Suk Go (RHP, SD), and Phillies reliever Jeff Hoffman (RHP, PHI) are all interesting. Gallegos has been a strong skill set for a long time in set up and typically adds some saves. Go will get leverage and could be the main right-handed set up to Suarez with a better skill set than Suarez. Hoffman is many pundits choice as the Plan B for Philadelphia ahead of Kerkering and behind Alvarado based on a solid 2023. This column favors Kerkering if Alvarado needs replaced, but Hoffman is certainly capable and the scenario where he does find his way into saves certainly exists.
Here are the projections for the next clump with a minimum ADP between 301-400:
| min 301-400 ADP | Tm | SV | IP | xERA | WHIP | K% | K-BB% | HR9 | $V |
| Uribe, Abner | MIL | 2 | 58 | 3.22 | 1.29 | 34% | 18% | 0.3 | -4 |
| Kittredge, Andrew | STL | 2 | 44 | 3.23 | 1.05 | 25% | 21% | 0.6 | -1 |
| Berroa, Prelander | CWS | 2 | 51 | 3.46 | 1.24 | 32% | 20% | 0.7 | -2 |
| Sborz, Josh | TEX | 4 | 51 | 3.52 | 1.20 | 30% | 21% | 1.2 | -4 |
| Merryweather, Julian | CHI | 5 | 65 | 3.64 | 1.18 | 29% | 21% | 1.0 | 1 |
| McMillon, John | KC | 3 | 51 | 3.69 | 1.27 | 31% | 18% | 0.7 | -5 |
| Jax, Griffin | MIN | 4 | 58 | 3.74 | 1.19 | 24% | 18% | 1.1 | -1 |
| Payamps, Joel | MIL | 2 | 58 | 3.92 | 1.16 | 23% | 17% | 0.9 | -1 |
| Yates, Kirby | TEX | 4 | 58 | 4.08 | 1.33 | 30% | 17% | 1.1 | -4 |
The exciting skill sets here are Cardinals reliever Andrew Kittredge (RHP, STL), White Sox hopeful Prelander Berroa (RHP, CHW), and Cubs set up Julian Merryweather (RHP, CHC). Kittredge was elite for the Rays and it is hoped that he can play to this strong projection. Berroa is an exciting skill set with a whopping 32% K% and 20% K%-BB% so lots of walks and growth in his future. Make sure he makes the team, but there is no one in the White Sox stable with an arm like Berroa's and there is a scenario where he is closing by May. Merryweather is behind Alzolay and Neris, but he is certainly capable.
Of the two Rangers in this grouping, Josh Sborz (RHP, TEX) is projected for the better skill set than Kirby Yates (RHP, TEX). Yates used to be an elite skill set and reliably top closer, but he has battled back from injuries. Sborz is the reliever here with the 30% K% and 21% K%-BB%. Sborz has the best projected skills in the Rangers pen, in fact, but he is down the pecking order and will have to work his way past Leclerc, Robertson, and possibly Yates as well. He has the skill set to finally do it.
If Abner Uribe (RHP, MIL) can tighten it up with a 34% K% but just an 18% K%-BB% and that 0.3 HR/9, he could be a monster for Milwaukee. Definitely worth a dart to find out in deeper leagues.
Here are the projections for the minimum ADP 401-480 relievers:
| min 401-480 ADP | Tm | SV | IP | xERA | WHIP | K% | K-BB% | HR9 | $V |
| Hurt, Kyle | LA | 0 | 29 | 2.64 | 1.03 | 35% | 28% | 0.9 | -7 |
| Kahnle, Tommy | NYY | 6 | 58 | 3.02 | 1.12 | 32% | 23% | 1.4 | -1 |
| Megill, Trevor | MIL | 0 | 58 | 3.39 | 1.17 | 31% | 23% | 1.1 | -4 |
| Stewart, Brock | MIN | 2 | 58 | 3.39 | 1.28 | 35% | 26% | 1.1 | -4 |
| Schreiber, John | KC | 3 | 58 | 3.50 | 1.17 | 29% | 20% | 0.8 | -1 |
| Rogers, Taylor (L) | SF | 4 | 58 | 3.59 | 1.24 | 30% | 21% | 0.9 | -3 |
| Jimenez, Joe | ATL | 4 | 58 | 3.65 | 1.19 | 32% | 25% | 1.2 | -3 |
| Vest, Will | DET | 5 | 58 | 3.74 | 1.21 | 24% | 18% | 0.9 | -4 |
| Maton, Phil | TB | 0 | 58 | 3.80 | 1.22 | 27% | 18% | 0.8 | -2 |
| Moore, Matt (L) | LAA | 0 | 58 | 3.87 | 1.21 | 27% | 19% | 0.9 | -1 |
With this grouping, you are throwing end game darts at elite skill sets without a clear path to saves. But the elite projected skills always give you a shot.
Where to start? Kyle Hurt (RHP, LA) is projected for a 2.64 xERA, 1.03 WHIP, 35% K%, 28% K%-BB% and an 0.7 HR/9 but only 29 innings because the Dodgers pen is so crowded. If Hurt can deliver on the skills part of the projection, he should climb the ladder into leverage quickly.
Tommy Kahnle (RHP, NYY) is a staple in this column year-over-year because he always has elite skills projections for the Yankees, he pitches in leverage, and he seemingly always gets hurt. The skills are undeniable and if Clay Holmes (RHP, NYY) stumbles, Kahnle could end up with saves.
Trevor Megill (RHP, MIL) was fun with the Brewers once they inserted him in as an overqualified reliever. He is projected for a 31% K% and 23% K%-BB% and could be the more reliable Plan B in Milwaukee. Abner Uribe is more flashy, but Megill is not far off with the K rate and is far better at avoiding walks.
The poster boy of this article is Brock Stewart (RHP, MIN), projected for a 35% K%(!!) and 26% K%-BB%. That will play for the Twins. Heck, that will play for anyone. If there is one team that doesn't need Stewart to close, it is the Twins with elite skills closer Jhoan Duran (RHP, MIN). But Stewart is going to pitch in leverage with those projections and he can easily grab saves if the Twins give him some chances.
Stewart might have the best skill set for a reliever without a saves projection (two saves) and those guys more often than not produce a profit if they live up to the skills projection because they vulture wins, add strikeouts, help ERA/WHIP, and get more leverage playing time than their counterparts.
This last clump with minimum ADP 481+ are probably not for your end game as much as they are for your list of possibles down the road. Projections:
| min 481+ ADP | Tm | SV | IP | xERA | WHIP | K% | K-BB% | HR9 | $V |
| Kelly, Joe | LA | 2 | 44 | 2.89 | 1.27 | 31% | 20% | 1.0 | -6 |
| Speier, Gabe (L) | SEA | 0 | 58 | 3.01 | 1.17 | 27% | 22% | 1.1 | -5 |
| Ferguson, Caleb (L) | NYY | 2 | 58 | 3.57 | 1.28 | 28% | 18% | 0.6 | -3 |
| Green, Chad | TOR | 2 | 58 | 3.71 | 1.19 | 31% | 24% | 1.1 | 1 |
| Raley, Brooks (L) | NYM | 4 | 58 | 3.77 | 1.26 | 27% | 18% | 0.8 | -6 |
| Thielbar, Caleb (L) | MIN | 0 | 51 | 3.78 | 1.08 | 29% | 23% | 0.9 | -2 |
| Vesia, Alex (L) | LA | 2 | 51 | 3.87 | 1.16 | 31% | 23% | 1.1 | -4 |
| Gott, Trevor | OAK | 7 | 58 | 4.06 | 1.26 | 25% | 17% | 0.9 | -7 |
Toronto giving Chad Green (RHP, TOR) a shot to earn a role in leverage is interesting. It becomes really interesting really fast if he can live up to the projection.
Joe Kelly (RHP, LA) is an annual enigma--superb skills projection, typically hits a rut sometime during the season to wreck the ERA. But the projection is excellent again and he will have a leverage role with the Dodgers unless/until he stumbles.
There are five lefties on this list--all good to great skills and should be interesting to teams in deep leagues where holds are valued. Those five: Gabe Speier (LHP, SEA), Caleb Ferguson (LHP, NYY), Brooks Raley (LHP, NYM), Caleb Thielbar (LHP, MIN), and Alex Vesia (LHP, LA).
The goal here is to spend a dollar, not three or five or seven chasing a skill set. If someone else goes crazy, just get the next one down your list. There are plenty of great skill sets and you don't have to waste your money when fishing in this pond.
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