End-gamers, 2024

Let's continue our end-game theme by moving on to hitters who could provide significant value to you late in your drafts or for a token bid.

There is a lot of profit to be found in end-game hitting speculations, especially if you target those with emerging or hidden skills.

Keeping in mind that an end-game target in one league might require a heavy investment in another, here we'll present a large cross-section of guys in each league who could generate a lot of profit for you in 2024.

Let's identify potential end-game targets by looking at batters with a 300+ ADP who showed the highest average exit velocities (EV) in 2023:

Name	Age	Lg	Tm	Pos	ADP	EV
Ji Man Choi	32	NL	NYM	1B DH	751	93.4
Giancarlo Stanton	34	AL	NYY	RF DH	306	93.3
Luken Baker	27	NL	STL	DH	735	93.1
Joey Gallo	30	NL	WSH	1B LF	623	93.0
Marco Luciano	22	NL	SF	SS	579	93.0
Patrick Wisdom	32	NL	CHI	3B	648	92.7
Mark Vientos	24	NL	NYM	DH	625	92.5
Darick Hall	28	NL	PHI	1B	751	92.5
Heston Kjerstad	25	AL	BAL	OF	618	92.3
Travis Blankenhorn	27	NL	WSH	2B	-	92.3
Bobby Dalbec	28	AL	BOS	1B	740	92.2
Joc Pederson	31	NL	ARI	LF DH	528	92.1
Matt Wallner	26	AL	MIN	LF	344	91.9
Ryan O'Hearn	30	AL	BAL	1B RF	494	91.9
Dane Myers	28	NL	MIA	OF	751	91.8
Name	Age	Lg	Tm	Pos	ADP	EV
Jordyn Adams	24	AL	LAA	OF	751	91.8
Daniel Vogelbach	31	AL	TOR	DH	751	91.7
Taylor Trammell	26	AL	SEA	OF	750	91.5
Wilyer Abreu	24	AL	BOS	OF	486	91.3
Brandon Marsh	26	NL	PHI	LF	432	91.3
Victor Caratini	30	AL	HOU	C	651	91.3
Iván Herrera	23	NL	STL	C	559	91.3
Joshua Palacios	28	NL	PIT	LF	708	91.3
Ryan Noda	27	AL	OAK	1B	538	91.2
J.D. Davis	30	AL	OAK	3B	555	91.1
Gabriel Arias	24	AL	CLE	1B SS RF	658	91.1
Luke Raley	29	AL	SEA	1B RF	385	91.1
Stone Garrett	28	NL	WSH	LF	623	91.1
Austin Slater	31	NL	SF	LF	749	91.1
Mitch Haniger	33	AL	SEA	LF	503	91.0
Name	Age	Lg	Tm	Pos	ADP	EV
Sean Bouchard	27	NL	COL	OF	650	91.0
Matt Mervis	25	NL	CHI	1B	633	91.0
Ryan McKenna	27	AL	BAL	CF RF	751	91.0
Travis d'Arnaud	35	NL	ATL	C	452	90.7
Emmanuel Rivera	27	NL	ARI	3B	749	90.7
Seth Brown	31	AL	OAK	LF	585	90.5
René Pinto	27	AL	TB	C	444	90.5
Romy González	27	AL	BOS	2B	751	90.5
Jesús Sánchez	26	NL	MIA	RF	518	90.4
Jake Rogers	28	AL	DET	C	362	90.4
Avisaíl García	32	NL	MIA	RF	735	90.4
Kody Clemens	27	NL	PHI	1B	-	90.4
Trent Grisham	27	AL	NYY	CF	619	90.3
Jordan Westburg	25	AL	BAL	2B 3B	332	90.2
Will Benson	25	NL	CIN	LF	300	90.2
Name	Age	Lg	Tm	Pos	ADP	EV
Michael Toglia	25	NL	COL	1B	748	90.2
Anthony Rendon	33	AL	LAA	3B	544	90.1
Gary Sánchez	31	NL	MIL	C	480	90.1
Ezequiel Duran	24	AL	TEX	3B SS LF DH	376	90.1
Kyle Higashioka	33	NL	SD	C	683	90.1
Trevor Larnach	27	AL	MIN	LF	746	90.1
Mike Yastrzemski	33	NL	SF	CF RF	612	90.0
Jordan Diaz	23	AL	OAK	2B 3B	658	90.0

Here are two dozen of the most intriguing end-game targets, with a focus on those who might be available even in very deep leagues.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Wilyer Abreu (LF, BOS) is being drafted pretty low in most leagues (487 ADP) due to his lack of a prospect pedigree. However, there is reason to believe he can add value in 2024, since he hit the ball with sneaky authority in 2023 (91.3 mph EV, 9.4% Brl%). In addition, he didn't chase at a high rate to get there (25.1% Chase%). Just note that he hasn't put his best foot forward so far this spring (.146 BA, .627 OPS, 8/17 BB/K in 41 AB).

Jonathan Aranda (DH, TAM) will be available only at DH in most leagues to begin the season. That's likely keeping his market price low (635 ADP), along with the marginal results he showed in 2023 (.231 BA, 2 HR, 13 RBI in 107 PA). Nonetheless, Aranda owns a 90.0 mph EV during his brief MLB career, and his bat has produced at a solid clip in the minors. Aranda is a good bench bat in deep leagues.

Gabriel Arias (SS/1B/RF, CLE) showed some signs of life with his bat in a super-utility role with CLE in 2023. His batted ball metrics were excellent (91.1 mph EV, 9.9% Brl%). His Statcast Sprint Speed was above average. And he was pretty productive in the second half (6 HR, 3 SB in 193 PA). His upside is limited, and he's a better fit as a MI fill-in than a player that holds a regular spot in your lineup. But his multi-position eligibility and strong batted ball indicators give him some hidden potential.

Akil Baddoo (LF, DET) will begin the 2024 season in a part-time role in the DET outfield after an overall mediocre season in 2023 (.216 BA, .675 OPS in 360 PA). However, he showed some hidden gains last year, including a near three-point gain in average exit velocity (85.0 to 88.1 mph EV) and a reduction in his already-strong chase rate (26.9% to 25.7% Chase%). Plus, his speed skills (91st percentile Sprint Speed) make him a multi-category threat if he can get another extended look.

Tyler Freeman (3B, CLE) has 3 SB in 28 AB so far in spring training. It's a reminder of the 82nd percentile Sprint Speed he posted in 2023. CLE will need to find ways to manufacture offense in 2024, which could mean 20 SB for a player like Freeman if he can work his way into a super-utility role.

Mitch Haniger (LF, SEA) appears to be healthy for the first time in years. He has five extra-base hits in 23 AB during March, good for a 1.477 OPS. He had some of his most productive seasons with the Mariners, and when he's healthy, he's a 30-HR producer. That upside isn't something you'd normally find at his 502 ADP, so if you can get him at that price, he's worth the gamble.

Keston Hiura (1B, DET) is doing everything he can to make DET's Opening Day roster as a bench bat. He has been excellent in a tiny sample size (2 HR, 1.000 OPS, 2/6 BB/K in 24 AB). So far, the contact gains he made at Triple-A in 2023 have carried forward. He is being forgotten about in just about every league (744 ADP). He could figure into DET's plans as a utility player, and at age 27, he still has good untapped potential.

Kyle Isbel (OF, KC) is another batter who didn't deliver much value in 2023 (.242 BA, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 7 SB in 322 PA). But there were seeds of something more, including a nine-point jump in contact (70% to 79% ct%) and a big leap in his power foundation (95 to 117 xPX). You can get him for basically nothing (665 ADP), and he carries hidden 20-HR, 20-SB upside.

Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) gave us a glimpse of his power upside during his MLB debut in 2023 (157 xPX in 2023). His Statcast batted ball indicators were just as intriguing: 92.3 mph EV, 20.0% Brl%. He did open up his swing to get there (66% ct%, 36% Chase%), a problem that has continued in March (1/11 BB/K in 39 AB). Now's the time to buy low on him (618 ADP).

Ryan Noda (1B, OAK) did not produce anything that stood out in 2023 (.229 BA, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 3 SB in 495 PA). That said, his batted ball metrics were really intriguing (91.2 mph EV, 13.0% Brl%, 90th percentile Max EV). Furthermore, his very low 19% chase rate was in the game's 94th percentile. There's some excellent profit potential at his 538 ADP.

Amed Rosario (SS/2B, TAM) will get a chance to fill a super-utility role with the Rays, a job that has produced some profitable players with that club over the years. His mediocre batted ball indicators limit the upside of his bat, but his 95th percentile Statcast Sprint Speed and steady near-80% ct%  give him 30-SB potential if TAM lets him run. He'll qualify at both SS and 2B in most leagues to start the season and likely will add outfield eligibility early in the year. There's good value here at his 401 ADP.

Austin Wells (C, NYY) has demonstrated improvement in his defense this spring, and it hasn't come at the expense of his bat. He has a .296 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI, and .997 OPS in 27 AB so far in March. His plate discipline has been shaky (3/11 BB/K), so we can't expect that growth to be linear. Still, his batted ball output in 2023 (89.5 mph EV, 14.0% Brl%) suggests he could become NYY's primary backstop in 2024, and you can get him at a decent price (334 ADP).
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Miguel Amaya (C, CHC) showed some flashes at Triple-A in 2023, which led to his first MLB opportunity. His bat featured good pop potential (116 xPX). He did not make consistent contact, but his solid 28% chase rate suggests he can improve in that area. In deep keeper leagues, he makes for an ideal second-catcher speculation.

Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL) is not getting a lot of attention in early 2024 drafts (409 ADP), and at age 29, it might seem like he's a known commodity at this point in his career. After a nagging wrist issue zapped his pop early in the 2023 season, Arcia put up 10 HR and 41 RBI in 298 PA during the second half. He could be ready for his first 20+ HR season.

Luken Baker (DH, STL) emerged as an unheralded prospect with a big 2023 at Triple-A (.334 BA, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 1.159 OPS in 380 PA). While his post-promotion MLB results weren't good at all (.205 BA, 0 HR, 4 RBI in 43 PA), his 93.1 mph EV trails only that of Choi and Stanton among 300+ ADP bats in 2024 drafts. His struggles this spring might limit his MLB role to begin the season (.205 BA, .487 OPS in 39 AB), but he's a premium stash in deep leagues, and you can get him for nothing (735 ADP).

Alec Burleson (OF, STL) flashed some really impressive batted ball results in 2022 (91.7 mph EV, 10.3% Brl%) before those marks backslid last season (89.9 mph EV, 5.9% Brl%). He has made tons of contact this spring (1 K in 33 AB) while also delivering three extra-base hits, an indication that his September thumb fracture won't be an issue to start the season. He's a steal at his 694 ADP.

Alexander Canario (DH, CHC) quietly has enjoyed a solid spring in his battle to earn a spot in the Cubs Opening Day roster. He has a .250 BA and .738 OPS in 40 AB. While his power hasn't been evident, he has looked healthy on the basepaths (3 SB). There's some sneaky 20-HR, 20-SB upside here if he can get semi-regular at-bats. At age 23, he's an ideal post-hype target.

Stone Garrett (LF, WAS) will begin the season as a part-timer in the WAS lineup. He showed some sneaky pop in 2023 (128 xPX in 273 PA). His 91.1 mph EV and 9.6% Brl% validated his power foundation. He's still working his way back from a broken leg in August 2023, and top prospects Crews and Wood get much more fanfare than he does. Still, he's worth keeping on your radar given his steady level of hard contact.

Iván Herrera (C, STL) quietly put up some interesting stats in a tiny sample size late in 2023 (.350 BA in 48 PA). A .423 BABIP drove his batting average, so we can't expect it to repeat. Nonetheless, Herrera did make a high volume of hard contact (91.3 mph EV), and his plate skills were passable (10% bb%, 72% ct%, 0.45 Eye). There's some second-catcher value here.

Marco Luciano (SS, SF) has watched his prospect star dim in recent years due to a combination of nagging injuries and holes in his swing. In 2024, he has fallen behind Nick Ahmed (SS, SF) in his quest to become SF's starting shortstop. Still, Luciano remains very young (22) and hit the ball with plenty of authority in 2023 (93.0 mph EV).

Luis Matos (CF, SF) is another Giants player who doesn't have a clear path to everyday playing time to start the 2024 season, but this 8D prospect has done plenty this spring to suggest he'll make an MLB impact soon. He has eight extra-base hits, including three homers. Even more impressive has been his 2/4 BB/K in 34 AB. Few end-game plays are better than Matos at his 603 ADP.

Joshua Palacios (RF, PIT) was a high-contact hitter with little punch early in 2023 (86% ct%, 63 xPX in 1H). Those marks reversed in the second half (71% ct%, 125 xPX in 2H). In sum, he made a lot of hard contact (91.3 mph EV). He's another hard-hitter who doesn't have a straightforward path to regular playing time to start the season, but if that happens, he'll produce good profit.

Gary Sánchez (C, MIL) hit his first home run of the spring over the weekend. Even though he's slated to get semi-regular work as a C/DH in the Brewers lineup, the market is undervaluing him (479 ADP). He continued to show good batted ball output in 2023 (90.1 mph EV, 15.4% Brl%). More importantly, his so-so 72% ct% was the best we've seen from him since 2017. If he can sustain those gains, he'll deliver some nice profit in 2024.

Mark Vientos (3B, NYM) is showing some power this spring (3 HR in 41 AB), but it has been offset by bad plate discipline (2/14 BB/K). Nonetheless, the upside in his bat is evident. He had a 92.5 mph EV and 10.7% Brl% in 2023. He'll need to find a better balance between chasing at pitches and hitting them hard. His chase rate jumped by 11 points from 2022 to 2023. At age 24, he remains a good guy to keep on your bench.

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