Gambles, 2024

This column will help you identify batters who might be overvalued heading into draft day. We'll do so by looking at batters whose returns in 2023 were not backed by strong underlying skill support.

Here are the batters who had the lowest average exit velocity (EV) among those who earned at least $5 last season:

Player	Pos	Lg	ADP	bb%	ct%	Eye	xPX	SPD	EV
Esteury Ruiz	CF	AL	121	4%	78%	0.20	44	101	82.7
Sal Frelick	RF	NL	289	13%	81%	0.76	54	104	83.3
Jake Fraley	RF	NL	341	10%	79%	0.52	83	63	84.5
Andrés Giménez	2B	AL	112	6%	80%	0.28	83	115	84.8
Kris Bryant	1B	NL	266	9%	77%	0.43	127	85	85.7
Thairo Estrada	2B	NL	135	4%	76%	0.18	88	105	85.9
Harrison Bader	CF	NL	483	8%	91%	1.00	6	103	85.9
Jeff McNeil	2B	NL	300	6%	89%	0.58	57	128	86.0
Steven Kwan	LF	AL	209	10%	88%	0.92	32	124	86.0
Jose Altuve	2B	AL	39	11%	80%	0.62	85	134	86.0
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	NL	82	12%	77%	0.60	76	102	86.2
Vaughn Grissom	2B	AL	312	3%	80%	0.13	57	127	86.2
Charlie Blackmon	DH	NL	538	9%	85%	0.70	108	113	86.4
Johan Rojas	CF	NL	499	3%	72%	0.12	44	147	86.6
Andrew Benintendi	LF	AL	467	9%	84%	0.58	61	92	86.6
Player	Pos	Lg	ADP	bb%	ct%	Eye	xPX	SPD	EV
Nico Hoerner	2B	NL	59	7%	87%	0.57	69	134	86.6
TJ Friedl	CF	NL	152	9%	82%	0.53	72	135	86.6
Kevin Kiermaier	CF	AL	646	7%	77%	0.34	49	137	86.7
Isaac Paredes	3B	AL	179	10%	79%	0.56	113	80	86.9
Jake Cronenworth	1B	NL	438	9%	79%	0.47	93	126	87.3
Willy Adames	SS	NL	182	11%	70%	0.43	135	88	87.4
CJ Abrams	SS	NL	40	6%	79%	0.27	98	126	87.4
Ty France	1B	AL	360	7%	80%	0.37	67	80	87.5
Xander Bogaerts	2B	NL	106	8%	82%	0.51	83	124	87.6
Tim Anderson	SS	NL	380	5%	75%	0.21	40	124	87.8
Daulton Varsho	LF	AL	211	8%	74%	0.33	104	109	87.8
James Outman	CF	NL	181	12%	63%	0.38	105	117	87.9
Mark Canha	LF	AL	535	9%	85%	0.63	72	94	87.9
Cody Bellinger	CF	NL	56	8%	83%	0.45	110	112	87.9
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	NL	194	4%	71%	0.15	102	115	88.0
Player	Pos	Lg	ADP	bb%	ct%	Eye	xPX	SPD	EV
Jeremy Peña	SS	AL	225	7%	78%	0.33	63	123	88.0
Chas McCormick	LF	AL	160	9%	71%	0.34	136	110	88.0
Christian Walker	1B	NL	88	10%	78%	0.49	119	89	88.0
Bryson Stott	2B	NL	106	6%	83%	0.38	81	102	88.1
Starling Marte	RF	NL	223	5%	78%	0.23	81	106	88.2
Orlando Arcia	SS	NL	408	7%	80%	0.40	88	85	88.2
Brendan Rodgers	2B	NL	447	6%	78%	0.27	106	106	88.3
George Springer	RF	AL	117	9%	80%	0.48	94	103	88.3
Luis García	2B	NL	498	6%	87%	0.45	88	112	88.3
Jose Siri	CF	AL	300	6%	61%	0.15	143	115	88.3
J.P. Crawford	SS	AL	285	15%	77%	0.75	75	84	88.3
Jeimer Candelario	1B	NL	217	9%	75%	0.40	109	88	88.3
Luis Arraez	2B	NL	160	7%	94%	1.03	76	100	88.3
Adley Rutschman	C	AL	49	14%	83%	0.91	91	85	88.4
Marcus Semien	2B	AL	29	10%	84%	0.65	127	123	88.4
Player	Pos	Lg	ADP	bb%	ct%	Eye	xPX	SPD	EV
Trevor Story	SS	AL	175	5%	65%	0.16	115	98	88.5
Lane Thomas	RF	NL	109	5%	72%	0.20	114	116	88.5
Alex Kirilloff	DH	AL	417	9%	72%	0.35	116	84	88.6
Alex Bregman	3B	AL	93	13%	86%	1.06	131	120	88.6
Anthony Volpe	SS	AL	133	9%	69%	0.32	114	111	88.7
Spencer Steer	LF	NL	103	10%	76%	0.49	108	106	88.7
Ozzie Albies	2B	NL	23	7%	82%	0.43	141	95	88.7
Nolan Arenado	3B	NL	97	8%	82%	0.42	94	96	88.8
Adam Duvall	CF	FA	496	7%	65%	0.20	138	102	88.8
Carlos Santana	1B	AL	519	9%	83%	0.57	93	108	88.8
Nick Castellanos	RF	NL	102	5%	70%	0.19	113	92	88.9
Cedric Mullins	CF	AL	139	10%	75%	0.43	85	93	88.9
José Abreu	1B	AL	286	7%	76%	0.32	90	97	89.0
Masataka Yoshida	DH	AL	177	6%	85%	0.42	64	98	89.0
Evan Carter	LF	AL	124	17%	61%	0.50	167	126	89.0
Player	Pos	Lg	ADP	bb%	ct%	Eye	xPX	SPD	EV
Zach Neto	SS	AL	300	5%	74%	0.20	124	82	89.1
Josh Lowe	RF	AL	74	7%	73%	0.25	96	97	89.1
Lars Nootbaar	RF	NL	200	15%	77%	0.73	110	103	89.1
Tommy Edman	CF	NL	167	7%	83%	0.42	86	114	89.1
Luis Rengifo	3B	AL	246	9%	79%	0.50	100	126	89.1
Josh Naylor	1B	AL	128	8%	85%	0.48	95	76	89.1
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	AL	31	6%	69%	0.17	129	102	89.1
Tyler O'Neill	LF	AL	231	11%	72%	0.42	109	90	89.2
Dansby Swanson	SS	NL	124	10%	73%	0.43	129	112	89.3
Brendan Donovan	2B	NL	288	9%	84%	0.62	113	106	89.3
Matt McLain	2B	NL	62	8%	69%	0.27	113	149	89.3
Will Smith	C	NL	80	12%	81%	0.70	123	110	89.3
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	AL	170	10%	87%	0.81	120	74	89.3
Austin Hays	LF	AL	327	7%	73%	0.27	105	102	89.4
Jordan Walker	LF	NL	112	8%	75%	0.36	95	103	89.4
Alec Bohm	3B	NL	160	7%	83%	0.45	86	71	89.4

Let's take a closer look at a dozen bats who are likely to be overvalued in 2024.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) is being drafted as a top-40 player (39 ADP), and for good reason. He has earned at least $20 in seven of his MLB seasons. While injuries chipped away at his at-bat total in 2023 (360 AB), Altuve delivered in multiple categories: .311 BA, 17 HR, 51 RBI, 14 SB. There are reasons to expect a decline though. His average exit velocity has ranked in the game's bottom 6th percentile in both 2022 and 2023. His .348 BABIP last season was his highest mark since 2018, so a steep regression there is possible. And Altuve's Statcast Sprint Speed of 26.9 ft/s was in the game's 38th percentile. In fact, that was the continuation of a steady three-year speed drop: 88th, 73rd, 70th, 38th percentile. We can't expect a return of pristine health now that he's in his mid-30s. There's significant risk of a decline here.

Evan Carter (LF, TEX) had a spectacular debut late in 2023 (.306 BA, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 3 SB in 75 PA). That power/speed combo was backed by a 167 xPX and 126 Spd. Before you invest in a breakout, note that his 89.0 mph EV was much more decent than good. His .412 BABIP has little chance to repeat; it was the driver of his .300+ BA. He'll need to adjust to MLB pitchers, who found some big holes in his swing (61% ct%). The long-term potential here is evident, but if you play in a non-keeper league, you're unlikely to earn profit at his 123 ADP.

Vaughn Grissom (SS, BOS) has a strained groin that will put him on the injured list to begin the season. Injury aside, Grissom is being drafted as a starting 2B in some leagues (311 ADP). Problem is, Grissom's batted ball indicators in 2023 were very subpar, especially his level of hard contact: 86.2 mph EV, 6.6% Brl%. His injury, along with his 46th percentile Statcast Sprint Speed, likely will hold back his SB output. He's another young player who might be a year or two away from making a significant impact.

Alex Kirilloff (OF/1B, MIN) isn't getting a heavy investment in early 2024 drafts (418 ADP). That's a good thing considering his chronic inability to stay healthy. Some might want to speculate on an age-26 step forward given the decent stats he posted in 2023 (.271 BA, 11 HR, 41 RBI in 319 PA). However, Kirilloff's so-so batted ball indicators (88.6 mph EV, 7.4% Brl%) don't support impactful pop, and he still has some moderate holes in his swing (72% ct%).

Josh Lowe (RF, TAM) is being drafted as a top-75 player (75 ADP) so far in 2024 drafts. He was a multi-category stud during his breakout in 2023: .292 BA, 20 HR, 83 RBI, 32 SB in 501 PA. However, his power foundation was shaky (96 xPX), his batting average on balls in play was favorable (.357 BABIP), and his plate discipline was mediocre (6% bb%, 70% ct%, 0.25 Eye). Expect some significant pullback here.

Isaac Paredes (3B/1B, TAM) will lose 2B eligibility in most leagues to begin the season, which is helping to keep his market value reasonable (179 ADP) given the 31 HR and 98 RBI he produced in 2023. His .271 xBA does give hope that his .248 BA will rise, but his firmly below-average batted ball output gives reason for pause for both his BA and power (86.9 mph EV, 5.9% Brl%). It's best to use a .260 BA and 20 HR as your baseline for 2024.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Luis Arraez (2B, MIA) delivered a $20+ season in many leagues in 2023 (.354 BA, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 3 SB in 617 PA). His elite bat-on-ball ability (94% ct%) makes a .300 BA a near lock, but keep in mind that he doesn't hit the ball hard on average (88.3 mph EV). Further, his steady 3.0% Brl% means his homers should revert back to the single digits. He's more likely to duplicate 2022 (.318 BA, 8 HR) than repeat 2023.

Nick Castellanos (RF, PHI) had a nice bounce-back season in 2023 (.269 BA, 29 HR, 105 RBI, 11 SB in 676 PA), marking the third $20+ season of his career. However, he had to chase a lot to get there. His 41% Chase% was the highest of his career, and his 70% ct% was his second-lowest. Finally, his 113 xPX was significantly lower than the power foundation that fueled his steady 25-30 HR output earlier in his career.

Thairo Estrada (2B/SS, SF) was on his way to a big breakout in 2023 before a fractured hand got in the way. His first-half output was excellent (.272 BA, 9 HR, 31 RBI, 18 SB in 315 PA). That spike provides legit reason to bet that he can become a frontline 2B in 2024. Nonetheless, Estrada's rough overall 85.9 mph EV and 4.8% Brl% cap the potential in both his HR and counting stats. Furthermore, Estrada's chase rate jumped six points in 2023 (38% Chase). That combination of chase and lack of hard contact will send his batting average south, a risk shown in his .251 xBA from last season.

Jake Fraley (RF/DH, CIN) was really good in the middle of 2023 but struggled in both April (.219 BA, .672 OPS) and September (.159 BA, .465 OPS). In aggregate, Fraley really struggled to hit the ball with authority (84.5 mph EV, 6.0% Brl%). That poor batted ball quality will make it difficult to expect anything more than a .250 BA and only flashes of pop.

Johan Rojas (CF, PHI) returned $7 of value during his MLB debut in 2023 behind a combo of average (.307 BA) and speed (14 SB). Before you expect more of the same, note that his plate discipline was bad: 2% bb%, 71% ct%, 0.12 Eye. When he did make contact, he didn't do much with it (86.6 mph EV, 0.9% Brl%). And his 40% Chase% doesn't give much hope that his contact rate will improve. He can provide speed in a pinch but don't expect much else.

Eugenio Suárez (3B, ARI) continued to deliver good counting stats in 2023 (22 HR, 96 RBI in 694 PA). However, his .218 xBA was the lowest we've seen from him since his rookie season in 2014. Suarez's mid-60s contact rate is cemented in his profile now, as is his .230 BA. You can still bet on 20 HR from him, but his late power decline (113 xPX) adds more risk there than he's carried in the past.

More From Batters