End-gamers, 2024

The end game is where you can earn the most profit from your starting rotation, since those are the guys you pick up at the end of your drafts or for a token $1 bid.

Managing the end game isn't easy though. Not all guys are worth a $1 bid. Some have too much downside. Others don't have enough upside to justify having them on your roster.

An end-gamer in one league can be a sleeper or breakout target in another, so we'll provide you with a deep cross-section of players to focus on.

As a reminder, check out our scouting coverage for info on SP prospects worth targeting late in your drafts. Our focus here will be on pitchers with MLB experience.

These starting pitchers with a 300+ ADP have the best projected skills in 2024:

Player	Lg	ADP	K%	BB%	K-BB%	GB%	HR/9	BPX
Jacob deGrom	AL	522	40%	4%	36%	41	0.8	256
Bowden Francis	AL	721	30%	6%	24%	44	2.0	183
Ricky Tiedemann	AL	470	37%	12%	24%	44	1.0	169
Garrett Whitlock	AL	473	26%	5%	21%	43	1.0	159
Max Scherzer	AL	326	29%	7%	22%	33	1.3	152
Jeffrey Springs	AL	598	31%	9%	22%	39	0.9	150
Michael Grove	NL	693	27%	7%	20%	40	1.4	145
Robbie Ray	NL	610	29%	8%	21%	36	1.6	144
Chris Paddack	AL	348	23%	5%	18%	44	1.3	142
Jakob Junis	NL	656	24%	6%	18%	43	1.2	140
Frankie Montas	NL	377	26%	8%	18%	45	1.1	138
Justin Slaten	AL	749	27%	8%	19%	44	1.4	137
DL Hall	NL	424	27%	9%	18%	48	0.9	137
Domingo Germán	FA	681	27%	7%	19%	40	1.6	136
Tyler Mahle	AL	694	27%	8%	20%	37	1.6	136
Player	Lg	ADP	K%	BB%	K-BB%	GB%	HR/9	BPX
Keaton Winn	NL	563	22%	6%	15%	58	1.1	134
A.J. Puk	NL	439	27%	9%	18%	44	1.3	132
Andrew Heaney	AL	448	27%	8%	19%	38	1.6	132
Paul Skenes	NL	348	26%	8%	18%	44	0.9	130
Steven Matz	NL	474	24%	7%	17%	42	1.3	130
Alex Cobb	NL	564	22%	7%	15%	57	1.0	129
Sean Manaea	NL	402	25%	7%	17%	42	1.2	127
Drew Rasmussen	AL	695	25%	8%	16%	50	0.6	125
Sawyer Gipson-Long	AL	491	24%	7%	16%	44	1.6	125
Trevor Rogers	NL	397	25%	8%	17%	46	0.9	124
Nick Martinez	NL	549	24%	9%	15%	52	1.1	121
Ross Stripling	AL	646	20%	5%	15%	42	1.9	120
Robert Gasser	NL	574	25%	9%	16%	44	0.8	120
Cody Bradford	AL	721	20%	4%	16%	31	1.0	118
Jameson Taillon	NL	350	22%	6%	16%	38	1.5	118
Player	Lg	ADP	K%	BB%	K-BB%	GB%	HR/9	BPX
Logan Allen	AL	411	25%	8%	16%	42	1.2	118
James Paxton	NL	374	25%	9%	17%	42	1.3	118
Lance Lynn	NL	307	24%	8%	17%	37	1.4	117
Germán Márquez	NL	750	21%	7%	15%	49	1.2	117
Jordan Hicks	NL	337	27%	12%	15%	59	0.8	115
Erick Fedde	AL	445	22%	7%	15%	47	0.9	115
Luis García	AL	736	26%	8%	18%	32	1.0	115
Brady Singer	AL	519	22%	7%	14%	50	1.1	114
Louie Varland	AL	338	22%	7%	15%	43	1.2	114
Ranger Suárez	NL	393	23%	8%	14%	53	0.8	114
Tanner Houck	AL	503	24%	9%	14%	53	0.9	113
Zack Littell	AL	457	21%	7%	14%	43	1.4	111
Hayden Wesneski	NL	642	24%	9%	15%	43	1.5	110
Sixto Sánchez	NL	745	21%	7%	13%	54	0.8	110
Jon Gray	AL	336	23%	8%	15%	43	1.2	109
Player	Lg	ADP	K%	BB%	K-BB%	GB%	HR/9	BPX
Anthony DeSclafani	AL	652	21%	7%	14%	43	1.3	108
Aaron Ashby	NL	522	25%	11%	14%	57	1.0	107
Ryan Yarbrough	NL	686	18%	5%	14%	39	1.1	106
Michael Soroka	AL	618	21%	7%	14%	44	1.2	105
David Peterson	NL	708	26%	11%	15%	51	1.1	105
JP Sears	AL	462	23%	7%	16%	32	1.4	105
Alex Wood	AL	672	21%	8%	14%	46	1.1	105
Jack Flaherty	AL	421	25%	10%	15%	41	1.2	104
Chase Silseth	AL	394	25%	10%	15%	46	1.0	104
Clarke Schmidt	AL	418	22%	8%	14%	44	1.4	103
Zack Greinke	AL	750	17%	4%	13%	43	1.4	103
Casey Mize	AL	540	19%	7%	13%	48	1.1	103
Joey Estes	AL	749	19%	6%	13%	44	1.1	102
Gavin Stone	NL	553	23%	9%	13%	50	1.1	101
Kyle Hendricks	NL	521	18%	5%	12%	44	1.1	101
Luke Weaver	AL	745	22%	8%	14%	37	1.6	101
Lance McCullers Jr.	AL	718	25%	11%	14%	54	0.9	100
Bailey Falter	NL	738	20%	6%	14%	38	1.5	100
Dane Dunning	AL	457	22%	9%	13%	49	1.1	100

Let's take a closer look at nearly two dozen SP who could be worth a look in the end game of your drafts, particularly if you play in a deep league.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Shane Baz (RHP, TAM) is being brought along slowly in his return from Tommy John surgery, which was complicated recently by an oblique tweak. He was one of the more promising young starters in the game prior to his injury, he's still just 24 years old, and he's in the right organization to make the best use of his dominant stuff. He's a premium stash if you have a bench.

Garrett Crochet (LHP, CHW) is another pitcher whose ramp-up from Tommy John surgery has gone slowly. His rehab was complicated by a shoulder injury in 2023. He was a top-75 prospect back in 2021 and has looked dominant over four appearances this spring (12/0 K/BB in 9 IP). Crochet is an excellent speculation at his 618 ADP.

Alex Faedo (RHP, DET) is another young arm with an impressive draft pedigree whose development has been far from linear. While he might not start the season in the DET rotation, he also has put up dominating skills this spring (12/0 K/BB in 8 IP) and showed some flashes of impactful skills between injuries in 2023.

Erick Fedde (RHP, CHW) added a sweeper in South Korea and dominated KBO hitters. Given his long history of ugly stats and mediocre skills in the majors prior to that, the market isn't putting a lot of stock into his adjustments (445 ADP). Still, he's a worthy speculation if you can get him as your SP6 or later.

Bowden Francis (RHP, TOR) is being ignored in nearly every league (721 ADP). Nonetheless, tuck away the 35/8 K/BB in 36 IP that he posted out of the TOR bullpen in 2023. That level of command (19% K-BB%) gave him a 135 BPV during that period. He's 27 and there's not much upside here, but he could be worth a look in very deep leagues. He owns a strong 12.5% SwK% and 31% Ball% this spring.

Daniel Lynch (LHP, KC) no longer is being treated even as a post-hype target (733 ADP). That's the result of more time missed in 2023 due to a shoulder injury, along with two 5.00+ xERA seasons in the past three years. He has looked healthy so far this spring, and he has posted a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 13 IP. While his 9/5 K/BB  doesn't impress, he's missing plenty of bats (19.5% SwK%) and keeping the ball over the plate (24% Ball%). He's another viable dart throw in deep leagues given his prior upside.

Casey Mize (RHP, DET) has gone from #1 overall pick to an afterthought in many leagues (540 ADP). His results this spring have featured a high level of both strikeouts and walks (10/7 K/BB in 10 IP). He's someone who should get better as the season goes along, as he's still building back his arm strength from his Tommy John surgery in 2022.

Reese Olson (RHP, DET) doesn't have the upside of Mize but was a sneaky contributor in 2023, especially in the second half (3.74 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 77 IP). Those stats didn't come with full support from his skills (91 BPV, 4.11 xERA). Still, he misses bats at an above-average clip, throws in the mid-90s, and has a slight groundball tilt.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP, NYY) saw his stats erode late in 2023 (4.97 ERA in 2H), but that mark was due to a 33% H%, 65% S%, and 15% hr/f more than a lack of skill (107 BPV in 2H). A big drop in fastball velocity didn't help either. With improved durability, there's value here at his 418 ADP.

Chase Silseth (RHP, LAA) is an ideal end-game target. The market isn't giving him much attention (394 ADP) after he spent time at Triple-A and dealt with a concussion in 2023. However, he started to find his groove in a small sample size during the second half: 29% K%, 9% BB%, 20% K-BB%, 41% GB%, 125 BPV. There's some real sub-4.00 ERA potential here.

Mike Soroka (RHP, CHW) has fallen from a rotation anchor in 2019 to a forgotten pitcher in 2024 (618 ADP). However, he made some headway in Triple-A in 2023, and he has been really good in a tiny sample size so far in March (12/4 K/BB in 9 IP). Soroka is another high-risk, moderate-reward gamble.

Louie Varland (RHP, MIN) owns some of the best skill building blocks in the majors among young pitchers. He misses bats, throws a lot of strikes, and keeps the ball on the ground more than many young fireballers. It remains to be seen how effective he will be as a starter, but his early spring results have been superb (11/1 K/BB in 11 IP). There's still profit here at his 338 ADP.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Michael Grove (RHP, LA) rebounded in the second half of 2023 after a slow start to the season. His skills turned electric in a small sample size: 28% K%, 5% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 40% GB%, 163 BPV. Furthermore, his swinging strike doubled (9.7% SwK% in 1H, 18.3% SwK% in 2H). His lack of a clear role on the LA staff has made him a bargain in nearly every format (693 ADP).

Jakob Junis (RHP, MIL) is another starter who surged late in 2023. He had a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP during his last 39 IP, and those stats had full backing from his skills: 26% K%, 3% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 44% GB%, 169 BPV. His upper-tier 13.4% SwK% gave his strikeout rate even more upside. He hasn't thrown 170+ IP since 2019, so we can't expect much more than 100 IP from him. Still, he could be a huge profit center if he can stay on the mound.

DL Hall (LHP, MIL) owns some of the best stuff in the majors among unheralded arms. He emerged as a bullpen force with BAL in 2023 (131 BPV in 2H) when he missed tons of bats (14.6% SwK%) while keeping the ball on the ground (50% GB%). That was a tiny sample size though, and his ultimate home might be out of the bullpen. But he'll get a shot to show his stuff in an expanded role in 2024.

Kyle Hurt (RHP, LA) also is a young arm with premium stuff and role ambiguity. Hurt showed starter traits when he emerged in the high-minors in 2023. His high-movement stuff generated whiffs at a really high rate, and he also ironed out some of the control problems that stymied his development earlier in his career. Use his lack of a clear role as a reason to stash him (683 ADP).

Matthew Liberatore (LHP, STL) has shown glimpses of his first-round draft pick pedigree at times over the past couple of years but hasn't been able to sustain them. The market has given up on him (720 ADP), which presents an opportunity to speculate if you play in a deep league. Liberatore has put up a decent 8/2 K/BB in 12 IP this spring, and his building blocks have been even better (14.5% SwK%, 30% Ball%). At age 24, it's too early to write him off.

Steven Matz (LHP, STL) shows stints of being a viable mid-rotation starter. He had a 3.86 ERA over 105 IP in 2023 behind a solid 116 BPV. In particular, his skills surged in the second half: 24% K%, 5% BB%, 19% K-BB%, 42% GB%, 131 BPV. Matz could deliver a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2024, which gives him profit at his 474 ADP.

Tylor Megill (RHP NYM) has suffered from streakiness throughout his MLB career. He's on a really strong one now. After adding a splitter in the off-season, Megill has delivered a 15/2 K/BB in 12 IP this spring. That command doesn't erase the shaky level he has shown in recent years, but if it turns out his cutter has given him a pitch to get out lefty bats consistently, he could finally cash-in on his mid-rotation upside in 2024.

Trevor Rogers (LHP, MIA) is being viewed as a speculative arm in early 2024 drafts (397 ADP). In 2023, a biceps strain turned into a torn lat. Those are reminders that we are still waiting for his first 140+ IP season. Nonetheless, his skills have been dominant when he has been healthy, and his very early signs this spring have been encouraging (6/0 K/BB in 5 IP).

AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP, ATL) tried out a new change-up against major-league batters during spring training, and the results were electric at times (11/3 K/BB in 7 IP). If he can continue the progress he has made with that pitch, he'll have three pitches that he can use to get out hitters. He should be one of the first pitchers that ATL recalls when they have an opening in their rotation. He's an excellent stash at his 489 ADP.

Gavin Stone (RHP, LA) showed a dominating change-up during his rookie season in 2023. It helped Stone to an elite 15.2% SwK% in 31 IP with LA, a rate of whiffs that was hidden by his horrible surface stats (9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP). He's another good profit play at his 553 ADP.

Keaton Winn (RHP, SF) also carries role ambiguity heading into 2024, which has kept him available in all but the deepest leagues (563 ADP). His MLB debut in 2023 was much better than his 4.71 ERA in 42 IP would seem to indicate. He induced groundballs at a very high clip (56% GB%) while missing a ton of bats (14.8% SwK%). If he can continue to keep his splitter over the plate, Winn could deliver some hefty profit in 2024, assuming his spring elbow injury isn't anything serious. 

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