Gambles, 2024

Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.

Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.

This doesn't mean you should avoid targeting all of the guys listed here, but it does mean that you should think twice before bidding full value on them.

Here's a closer look at 10 starting pitchers whose downside should give you pause on draft day.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chris Bassitt (RHP, TOR) has outperformed his expected ERA in each of the past six seasons. His ability to induce soft contact has been the driver of his success. The average exit velocity against him has been in the game's top 20th percentile for the most of his career. That said, he carries some specific warning signs heading into 2024. For one, he's coming off the first consecutive 180+ IP seasons of his career. At age 35, we can't bank on him doing it a third time. Next, his ability to miss bats has gone from decent to subpar over the past three seasons: 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.7% SwK%.

Dane Dunning (RHP, TEX) is being drafted only as an end-rotation stash in many leagues (461 ADP). That's a good call, as his 91 BPV gave some flimsy support to the 3.72 ERA and 1.27 WHIP he posted during his mini-breakout in 2023. His 4.34 xERA is a more reliable barometer of where he can expect his stats to settle in 2024. He's another pitcher who simply does not generate enough swing-and-miss (9.7% SwK%) to have long-term success.

Justin Verlander (RHP, HOU) enters 2024 as a big injury risk again, since he already is battling a shoulder issue. His 133 ADP has dropped significantly since that news broke. Even if healthy, Verlander's near two-point drop in swinging strike rate is a reflection of a larger deterioration in strikeouts. Reference his strikeout rate in each of the past four seasons: 35%, 33%, 27%, 21% K%. If healthy, he'll need to find a way to reinvent himself in order to stretch out his career. As a flyball pitcher who doesn't miss many bats, Verlander's ERA likely will be closer to 4.00 than 3.00 if he's not able to adjust his approach.

Michael Wacha (RHP, KC) is receiving some mid-rotation attention in some leagues (284 ADP) after the 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP he posted over 134 IP in 2023. Before you follow suit, you'll want to heed his injury risk as well. He missed six weeks with a shoulder issue in 2023, and he's had a balky shoulder for chunks of his career. Likewise, his last 140+ IP season came in 2017. He's a very poor bet to deliver double-digit value again in 2024.

Tyler Wells (RHP, BAL) helped fantasy managers who were patient with him in 2023. His overall stats (3.66 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 118 IP) made him a $9 pitcher that season. While his skills were pretty good (117 BPV), his chronic history of gopheritis gives his profile a lot of risk. And his so-so 36% Ball% puts his control at risk. In fact, his walk rate already is on a two-year upswing. He's another pitcher who will find it difficult to keep his ERA under 4.00 in 2024.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Sonny Gray (RHP, STL) is being drafted as an SP2 or SP3 in a lot of early drafts (125 ADP). He pitched more innings in 2023 (184 IP) than he had since 2015. In addition, he provided ace-like results (2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Problem is, a 5% hr/f really drove his low ERA. Gray's 36% Ball% will make it difficult for him to repeat the 7% BB% he posted in 2023. He's being overvalued in the market now.

Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) is being drafted close to the same spot as Gray (151 ADP) in early 2024 drafts. He's a pitcher whose peripherals are on the upswing. His 116 BPV suggests he can keep his ERA under 4.00 again, especially with his surging 12.5% SwK%. However, his expected ERA still profiles him as a 3.75-4.00 ERA pitcher. There's more downside than upside at his current market price.

Wade Miley (LHP, MIL) delivered a 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 120 IP in 2023. In fact, he managed a sub-3.50 ERA in the preceding two seasons as well. There's not much to like here though. For one, check out his plummeting swinging strike rate beginning in 2021: 10.6%, 9.8%, 8.3% SwK%. We can't expect him to post a friendly 26% H% for the third straight season. As that mark finally elevates, so too will his ERA.

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, ARI) was able to paint his cutter over the plate at will in 2023, which helped him to avoid much of the hard contact that plagued him earlier in his career. While his 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP from 2023 makes him an appealing target, his 4.13 xERA really wasn't much different from the level he has shown for most of his career. You're in a good spot if he's your SP4 or SP5. If you need him as more than that, you're likely to be disappointed.

Blake Snell (LHP, FA) threw more innings in 2023 (180 IP) than he has since 2018. He looked like an ace in those innings, too (2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). However, his skills were much more good than great (115 BPV). A 28% H% and 84% S% were the primary drivers of his sexy stats. He's much more likely to post a 3.50 ERA than another near-2.50 ERA. You're likely to be disappointed if you get him at his current market value (68 ADP).

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