Cease a Padre; D. Williams out three months

NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Diego Padres
NEWS: The Padres acquired RHP Dylan Cease from the White Sox in exchange for RHP Drew Thorpe, RHP Jairo Iriarte, RHP Steven Wilson and OF Samuel Zavala.
IMPACT: High 
BHQ SPIN: Cease, who is under contract through the 2025 season, will solidify the starting rotation after the departures of LHP Blake Snell, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Seth Lugo and RHP Nick Martinez via free agency. If they can stay healthy, Cease will join RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish and RHP Michael King to form a strong top four of the rotation. Cease had a down year in 2023 (4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 17% K-BB% in 177 IP), but underlying metrics were similar to his career numbers aside from a 1.2 mph loss in fastball velocity and an increased LD% (24%). A 35% H% and a 69% S% indicated a little bit of bad luck, which is supported by an xERA of 4.20. RHP Jhony Brito, RHP Matt Waldron and RHP Randy Vásquez are all competing for the final spot in the rotation. We view Brito, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade, and Waldron, who made 6 starts for the Padres last season, as the most likely options given their strong spring performances. 

The loss of Wilson, who led the Padres with 22 holds last season, will leave the bullpen a little thin. RHP Jeremiah Estrada, who the Padres claimed off of waivers from the Cubs in September, is a likely candidate to fill a middle relief role. We have bumped his usage to about 45 innings and added a few holds to reflect his middle relief role. The remainder of Wilson’s holds were distributed across several middle and late-inning relievers.
–Gannon

San Diego Padres
NEWS: Padres manager Mike Shildt announced that rookie OF Jackson Merrill “earned his way on the plane” for the Padres opening series in South Korea. His comments indicated that Merrill will be the Padres starting CF heading into the season.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: With this news, we have increased his overall playing time to 75%, with most of it in the OF, although he may also see some time at SS. José Azocar, who was the presumed starting CF heading into spring training, is the most impacted by this announcement; he’ll serve as the Padres 4th OF and we’ve reduced his overall playing time to 45%. However, Azocar would be the primary playing time beneficiary if LF Jurickson Profar’s sprained ankle causes him to miss any time. Merrill’s unexpected move to and success in the OF will also limit potential opportunities for non-roster invitees such as Óscar Mercado, Cal Mitchell, Tim Locastro, Tirso Ornelas and Jakob Marsee.
–Gannon

Milwaukee Brewers
NEWS: Milwaukee closer Devin Williams will miss roughly three months dealing with stress fractures in his back.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: Unfortunately for the Brewers and anybody who had drafted Williams, it looks like they will be without their All-Star closer until at least the middle of June. His shoes will be hard to fill, but the Brewers have been known to get the best out of their pitchers. The two top options to take over the closer role are Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe. DL Hall could potentially be an option also, but his value as a starter may trump a move back to the bullpen. We’ve removed half of Williams’ projected innings and saves at this time. Those saves have been spread out between Payamps and Uribe and for now we have kept a small percentage of saves with Hall and Elivs Peguero. As spring progresses and it is more clear how new manager Pat Murphy will handle this situation, we will update accordingly.
–Davison

Miami Marlins
NEWS: Edward Cabrera was diagnosed with right shoulder impingement and is presently listed as day-to-day.
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN: This news comes on the heels of the news that Braxton Garrett will miss Opening Day. We had factored Cabrera’s 2023 shoulder issues into his innings projection. This news has prompted a further small reduction in that projection, at least for now. If Cabrera’s season start is delayed, Ryan Weathers and especially A.J. Puk have chances at making Miami’s Opening Day rotation. The Marlins had already been leaning towards stretching Puk out to be a rotation possibility; both have pitched well this spring. We’ve given both Puk and Weathers small innings bumps.
–Hertz

Milwaukee Brewers
NEWS: Milwaukee announced that 2B/SS Brice Turang will be the Opening Day second baseman.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: Second base was one of the spots in a spring competition for the Brewers, but the incumbent Turang has secured the job and we’ve added a few ticks of additional playing time to his projection, while reducing the PT for Tyler Black and non-roster invitee Christian Arroyo. Turnag currently profiles as more of a speed guy and could again rack up 20+ stolen bases again in 2024.
–Davison

Washington Nationals
NEWS: The Nationals outrighted former top prospect Carter Kieboom to Triple-A.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: We had lowered Kieboom’s playing time projection after Washington signed Nick Senzel to play third base, but now we’ve zeroed it out. Senzel and Ildemar Vargas are the playing time gainers, at least for now. Senzel, of course, was once one of the top prospects in baseball, but his career has been derailed by a plethora of injuries. Still he had 13 homers and six steals over 333 plate appearances, so if he were to manage to stay healthy, he could help teams in deep leagues. Vargas, on the other hand, is only likely to be of interest to fantasy managers in the deepest of leagues. While he has been on MLB rosters intermittently since 2017, he’s only surpassed 200 plate appearances twice. In 2019, he made 211 appearances and last year, he came to the plate 265 times.
–Hertz

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chicago White Sox
NEWS: The White Sox acquired RHP Drew Thorpe, RHP Jairo Iriarte, RHP Steven Wilson and OF Samuel Zavala from San Diego for RHP Dylan Cease.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: After all the trade rumors, the Sox finally moved Cease. They get three prospects in Thorpe, Iriarte and Zavala, and a reliever, Wilson, who will figure in the late-inning mix. Wilson should factor in high-leverage situations with John Brebbia, Deivi García and Jordan Leasure. We’ve added 10% of saves to Wilson’s projection, but this situation is far from settled, much like the rotation. With Cease now on the West Coast, Erick Fedde moves up in the pecking order and the top spot in the rotation. Michael Kopech and Michael Soroka appear to be favorites for the middle of the rotation while Garrett Crochet, Chris Flexen and Jared Shuster are front-runners for the back end. Because of the pitching staff in such flux, we’ve added some small amounts of playing time to each (between 1-2%) and will make further adjustments when the Opening Day roster comes into better view.
–Green

New York Yankees
NEWS: RHP Gerrit Cole is scheduled to meet with noted sports surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache March 14, and for now the team is saying he is expected to miss one to two months.
IMPACT: High 
BHQ SPIN: According to reports, no tear has been detected in Cole’s ulnar collateral ligament, but the insistence on an in-person visit with ElAttrache would seem to be an ominous sign. In our previous update, we outlined the Yankees’ rotation options short of a trade or free agent signing, led by names like Luke Weaver, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Will Warren, and New York had one potential trade target taken off the board with RHP Dylan Cease was sent to the Padres.
–Olson

Boston Red Sox
NEWS: Outfielder Rob Refsnyder suffered a fractured pinky toe on his left foot when he was struck by a pitch March 12.
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN: While Refsnyder himself is not a major fantasy factor, he has been a regular in the Red Sox lineup against left-handed pitching, and his absence could have an effect on how Boston constructs its Opening Day roster. Specifically, it could open up a spot for another right-handed-hitting outfielder like Ceddanne Rafaela, who was already making a strong push to win the team’s center field job. Manager Alex Cora has also expressed some willingness to have Rafaela play second base while Vaughn Grissom’s groin injury heals. That would give the Red Sox options, like not being quite so tied to keeping around Pablo Reyes, since Rafaela could also spell Trevor Story at shortstop. This space has already discussed what could be a heads-up battle between C.J. Cron and Bobby Dalbec for a single bench spot, but there could be room for both, especially if Dalbec acquits himself well in the outfield, where he is expected to see some spring action soon. In a roundabout way, there could also be an impact on OF Wilyer Abreu, who is suffering through a tough spring at the plate (4-for-32, 14 K, though with eight walks). If Boston does open the season with Rafaela flanked by Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill in the outfield with Masataka Yoshida as the primary DH, Abreu could even start the year in the minors, though that might leave Boston with an all right-handed bench of Dalbec, Reyes and Cron. Lots to sort out here, in other words, but it’s beginning to look like Rafaela is Boston’s best answer at one position (CF) or another (2B). 
–Olson

New York Yankees
NEWS: In addition to requiring constant maintenance of his toe, Aaron Judge is also now dealing with an oblique issue, according to reports.
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN: Judge’s Opening Day availability is not yet in serious jeopardy, and he may return to spring action as early as this weekend, but the spring pain is serving as a reminder that Judge comes by his “D” health grade honestly. It will be interesting to see if the Yankees at some point backtrack on the idea of having Judge patrol center field. Trent Grisham should make the Opening Day roster and is another option at the position, though any game Grisham plays would have the effect of taking a more potent bat out of the lineup, it would seem.
–Olson

Tampa Bay Rays
NEWS: RHP Taj Bradley is expected to miss the start of the season after being shut down for at least two weeks due to a strained pectoral muscle. 
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: Bradley had pitched three scoreless innings (2 H, 1 K). According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the team’s fifth-starter options include Jacob Lopez, Naoyuki Uwasawa and Jacob Waguespack as well as relievers Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski, “who were being stretched out anyway,” according to Topkin. Perhaps the most interesting name of that group is Lopez, who was promoted in mid-August last year as a reliever, was sent down after about 10 days, then returned on October 1 to start the team’s regular season finale, which did not go well, though he did pitch into the sixth inning (5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5.1 IP). Prior to his initial call-up, Lopez had rated a mention in a “Second half deep league targets” column, which noted his dominance at Double-A and some ensuing command issues once he reached Triple-A. At this point, he is just a name to know, in case he earns what might be at best a short-term nod until the return of either Bradley or Shane Baz, whose ramp up after September 2022 Tommy John surgery has been slowed by a strained oblique.
–Olson

Seattle Mariners
NEWS: Seattle announced that RHP Gregory Santos will start the season on the IL with a lat strain.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: The injury news coming out of the bullpen in Seattle continues. Santos, who was acquired earlier this offseason from the White Sox, was dealing with shoulder muscle discomfort, but now will officially find the IL for the start of the 2024 season with a lat strain. He was expected to pitch in the late innings with Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash this season. Brash is also dealing with his own elbow inflammation, so it is possible that Seattle would be without both Brash and Santos to open the season. Ryne Stanek, Gabe Speier, and Trent Thornton would be called on to bridge the innings to get the ball to closer Andrés Muñoz. We will continue to monitor the situation and await more clarity on the length of time Santos (and potentially Brash) may be out before adjusting innings.
–Davison

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