J.D. Davis moves across the Bay

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Oakland Athletics
NEWS: The A’s signed 3B J.D. Davis to a one-year, $2.5M contract.
IMPACT: High 
BHQ SPIN: Davis, recently jettisoned from San Francisco in the wake of the Matt Chapman signing, finds a home in Oakland. This brings clarity to at least one part of the murky Oakland offense; all indications are Davis will play almost every day at the hot corner and we’ve projected that level of AB. We’ve made a corresponding AB reduction for Abraham Toro, who has had an outstanding spring and seemed like was in the lead for the 3B job prior to Davis signing. We’ve also trimmed time for Jordan Diaz, Aledmys Díaz and Nick Allen, and are keeping a close eye on Darell Henaiz, a rookie who came up as a SS but has played well at 3B also this spring. Hernaiz could head back to the minors—but could also supplant Allen as the starting SS. Allen has not played in two weeks due to a back issue and it would seem Hernaiz would be more suited defensively at SS than either Diaz. We’ll continue to update in the ramp-up to Opening Day.
–Hershey

Chicago White Sox
NEWS: The White Sox announced that Michael Kopech will pitch out of the bullpen.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: One day after the shakeup to the rotation with the trade of Dylan Cease, the Sox announced that Kopech (-7% IP) will open the season out of the pen after originally thought of as someone who solidified his spot in the rotation. Michael Soroka gets a slight bump (1.5%), as does Chris Flexen (1.5%).  The back of the rotation still is in flux, but it appears that Garrett Crochet is the front-runner for one spot and Nick Nastrini could be a leading candidate for the No. 5 role. We’ve added 1% to Crochet and 3% for Nastrini, who has a spring line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB.  We will hold off on assigning any saves or holds projections right now as we wait to see how the Sox plan to use Kopech. In 2021, he primarily was used out of the bullpen and had a 3.50 ERA with a 36% K% and he logged 13 holds, so a high-leverage role is possible. 
–Green

Cleveland Guardians
NEWS: Cleveland announced several pitching injuries. Most notably, RHP Gavin Williams will begin the season on the 15-day IL due to elbow soreness and RHP Trevor Stephan will undergo UCL reconstruction surgery.
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN: Williams reportedly hurt his throwing elbow last week during a weighted ball workout, but an MRI came back clean and the team is optimistic about his long-term health outlook. The expectation is that Williams will resume a throwing program within the next several days with the hope of a minimum stint on the IL. The most likely candidates to take Williams’ rotation spot to open the season are Carlos Carrasco, Xzavion Curry, Ben Lively, Hunter Gaddis, and Tyler Beede, all of whom have been competing for a spot in Cleveland’s bullpen as a long reliever.
Stephan, meanwhile, has a much more grim outlook as the team announced he will undergo UCL reconstruction surgery in the next 7-14 days. At this time, the exact procedure Stephan will undergo is unknown and the team has not provided a return timetable, but it seems likely that he will miss the entire season. Stephan’s absence cements Scott Barlow as the team’s top set-up option and could provide more late-inning opportunities for Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin. Cleveland’s bullpen is also dealing with other injuries as James Karinchak is considered unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to shoulder fatigue and Sam Hentges is reportedly meeting with a local doctor due to a swollen middle finger. These injuries could open spots in Cleveland’s bullpen for several pitchers, most notably including Cade Smith, an early spring standout (5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8 K, 0 BB) who was added to the team’s 40-man roster in the offseason.
Cleveland also announced that Daniel Espino will miss the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery, removing him as a possibility for a mid-to-late season promotion.
–Williams

Houston Astros
NEWS: José Urquidy left a minor-league start on Friday due to elbow pain.
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN: There was no initial prognosis, but with Justin Verlander (shoulder) out for Opening Day and J.P. France (shoulder) scheduled to get his first game action of the spring on Saturday, this was not good news. We have bumped up the starting innings for RHP Ronel Blanco a touch for now; Blanco has yet to allow a run in four appearances (11.2 IP) with 13 K/4 BB and could see significant innings at least at the start of the year if the Urquidy news turns south and/or Verlander or France has a setback. The Blake Snell rumors are getting hotter for a reason. More to come. 
–Hershey

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta Braves
NEWS: Atlanta signed outfielder Adam Duvall to a one year, $3 million contract.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: Initial reports indicate that the right handed hitting Duvall will platoon with Jarred Kelenic in left field. When the Braves acquired Kelenic, they indicated that they expected Kelenic to be their everyday left fielder. However, that expectation has apparently changed. Duvall hit 38 homers with a 168 PX in 2021, but has been hampered by injuries in 2022 and 2023. However, when healthy, the 35-year old has been just as productive. In 2023, he had 21 homers in 365 plate appearances with a 187 PX. We’re given Duvall some playing time coming at Kelenic’s expense for now, and will watch how they deploy the two in the final 10 days of spring training. 
–Hertz

Pittsburgh Pirates
NEWS: Pittsburgh will sign OF Michael A. Taylor to a one-year contract worth $4 million.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: With less than two weeks before the start of the season, the Pirates have a starting CF. The Gold Glove-winning OF hit a career-high 21 HR in 2023 with MIN and added 13 SB. The down side in 2023, however, was a .220 BA and .278 OBP. Taylor has spent most of his time in center, so it makes sense that Jack Suwinski will get pushed to right. The playing time losers appear to be Edward Olivares and Joshua Palacios. One of them will likely be ticketed for AAA. For now, we are keeping Taylor’s projected playing time and deducting 25% each from Olivares and Palacios. Connor Joe had projected time in the OF and that will take a 5% hit, as he will see most of his time in a platoon at 1B with Rowdy Tellez. We are deducting 5% from Henry Davis in the outfield, but giving him 5% at catcher, so no net change there. Ji Hwan Bae (-5%) will be another depth piece in the OF taking a hit as well.
–Green

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