AL East: Rosario eyes a regular role

Tampa Bay Rays

Earlier this offseason, Tampa Bay agreed to a one-year deal with Amed Rosario, who was coming off of a down season in 2023 in which he was relegated to a weak-side platoon role after being traded from Cleveland to the Dodgers. At the time of the signing, Rosario’s role appeared to be limited to the weak side of a platoon at second base with Brandon Lowe. Rosario, though, has had a strong start to the spring (.333/.333/.667, 2 HR, 2 SB in 24 PA) after training at Driveline Baseball facility in the offseason, focusing on tweaking his launch angle to hit the ball in the air more frequently. Notably, Rosario also turned down at least one more lucrative offer (from the New York Yankees), with his agent telling the New York Post that Tampa Bay gave Rosario “a clearer route to regular at-bats.” Rosario’s role against left-handed starters seems to be set in stone and across Tampa Bay’s roster, there are several opportunities where Rosario could mix in against right-handed starters for more regular at-bats.

The most immediate path to at-bats may be in right field, where Rosario has spent extensive time this spring, filling in while Josh Lowe deals with a hip injury. Lowe is said to be “progressing well” and is hopeful to be ready by opening day. However, he still has not resumed baseball activities, which could allow Rosario or Richie Palacios to see reps in rightfield to start the season.

Rosario’s presumed platoon partner at second base, Brandon Lowe, has also shown some warts this spring, hitting just .077/.077/.077 with 5 K in his first 13 PA. Lowe’s extensive injury history (126 IL days in the last two seasons for various back, arm, and knee ailments) and an offensive downturn in the last two seasons (.227/.321/.420 in 702 PA from 2022-2023) could open the door for Rosario or another option to see time against right-handed starters if performance warrants it.

Tampa Bay’s designated hitter spot against right-handed starters also remains unsettled. Jonathan Aranda currently appears to be the favorite for this role, but Rosario, Palacios, Curtis Mead, and Harold Ramírez (the presumed DH vs. LHP) could also factor in.

There also could be an opportunity for spot starts for Rosario across the diamond depending on off-days and Tampa Bay’s willingness to sacrifice defense for offense. As Tampa Bay’s roster currently stands, Rosario is the backup to José Caballero at shortstop, where Caballero is considered a superior defender but struggled offensively last season (.221/.343/.320 in 280 PA). Tampa Bay could also sit Jose Siri, who started 61% of games against right-handed starters last season, against some righties with Josh Lowe moving to center field and Rosario playing right field.

 

Baltimore Orioles

Albert Suarez, who is in camp with Baltimore after signing a minor league deal last September, came seemingly from nowhere to be an early spring standout, registering 7 K in three shutout innings against a Phillies lineup that included many regulars on March 5. Suarez struggled early in his next outing, allowing three first-inning runs to Toronto, but still rebounded for a more respectable line (4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 0 BB). The 34-year-old Suarez last pitched in the major leagues in 2017 for the Giants and has been pitching overseas since 2019, most recently for the Samsung Lions of the KBO from 2022-2023. Baltimore’s rotation looks to be set entering the season, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin being seen as heavy favorites for the last two spots due to injury absences for John Means and Kyle Bradish. Baltimore, though, is looking to fill a role in in its bullpen for a long reliever who would also step into the rotation should another injury occur and Suarez’s performance seems to have at least put him on the radar.

Another non-roster invitee, veteran Julio Teheran, is also in consideration for this spot. Teheran is coming off of a relatively unimpressive season (4.44 ERA, 4.55 xERA) for Milwaukee last year and agreed to a minor league deal with Baltimore following the shutdowns of Bradish and Means. Thus far in spring, Teheran has thrown three shutout innings, allowing just one baserunner but also registering just one strikeout.

Among pitchers on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, Bruce Zimmermann appears to be the most likely candidate for this spot. After seeing considerable time in Baltimore’s rotation in 2021 and 2022, Zimmermann pitched just 13 innings at the major league level out of the bullpen last year, compiling unimpressive surface numbers (4.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) but showing some encouraging skills (3.59 xERA, 22 K-BB%). Zimmermann is believed to be fully healthy after having surgery in October for a core muscle injury that he pitched through for much of the 2023 season. Thus far in spring, the left-hander has pitched fairly well in two outings (4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 1 BB).

Further down the roster, other options for a potential long relief role include a pair of Kansas City castoffs (Jonathan Heasley and Tucker Davidson) who currently look to be AAA depth pieces rather than immediate MLB contributors. Baltimore also has a slew of prospects (Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson, and Justin Armbruester) who are expected to begin the year in the minors but could contribute by mid-season.

 

Boston Red Sox 

As noted last week in PT Today, Lucas Giolito was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear and a flexor strain, and on Monday it was announce he is undergoing surgery, making it likely he will miss the entire season. Barring another signing, Giolito’s absence leaves two spots in the team’s rotation up for grabs. Earlier this offseason, we profiled the top three candidates for the team’s fifth starter role, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski. With Giolito’s injury, it now appears that two of those three pitchers will open the year in the rotation, with the other moving to the bullpen in what may be a high-leverage role. If another injury were to occur, Boston could conceivably turn to whichever of Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski does not make the rotation, but if they prefer to not disrupt their bullpen, they could also turn to other depth options in the organization.

The most notable of Boston’s other depth rotation options is Cooper Criswell, who was mentioned by the team as a fourth candidate for the rotation upon Giolito’s injury. Criswell, who was signed by Boston after being non-tendered by Tampa Bay, pitched in a hybrid role last season. Though he never officially started a game, Criswell threw between 2-4.2 innings in each of his outings with unimpressive results and skills (5.73 ERA, 4.58 xERA).

Boston is also returning a pair of pitchers who pitched in relief last season at the major league level in addition to starting for AAA-Worcester. Chris Murphy compiled 47.2 IP last year at the major league level, seeing time both as a reliever and as a bulk follower. Murphy had fairly unimpressive results (4.98 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) and skills (4.34 xERA, 14 K-BB%), leading to a label of “a back-end SP ceiling at very best” in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster. Another AAA starter, Brandon Walter, also pitched out of Boston’s bullpen last year and struggled mightily in 23 IP (6.26 ERA, 5.46 xERA). Walter has already been optioned to minor league camp though, indicating he is firmly behind Murphy in the depth pecking order.

Among Boston’s prospects, the most likely to contribute in 2024 is Richard Fitts, who the team acquired in the deal that sent Alex Verdugo to Boston. Fitts is expected to start the year in AAA and should have a full workload after throwing 152.2 innings in AA last season. The right-hander, who had a 3.49 ERA and 3.52 xERA in AA last year, is a 7C prospect and considered to have “backend SP upside, RP floor” according to the 2024 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Bryan Mata, who was profiled as a relief candidate in this space earlier in the offseason, also could be a rotation option down the line. However, Mata appears to be trending to starting the year on the IL after suffering a hamstring injury early in camp, removing him from the early season mix.

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto made a late addition to its camp roster with the signing of 40-year-old Joey Votto to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp. Votto, who hit .202/.314/.433 with 14 HR in 242 PA last season after missing 2 ½ months of the season after shoulder surgery, will now have a chance to close out his career with his hometown team. Following the signing, Votto told The Athletic that he expects to begin the season with AAA-Buffalo with a chance to earn a promotion to Toronto, especially given his late start to camp. The probable path to a role for Votto in Toronto is as a left-handed bench bat, who occasionally fills in at designated hitter or first base when Justin Turner sits or plays the field and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets a day at designated hitter.

Before the signing of Votto, Daniel Vogelbach was seen as the favorite for this role. Vogelbach, who hit .247/.359/.425 with 13 HR in 304 PA against right-handed pitching last season, signed a minor league deal with Toronto in February. Vogelbach has impressed so far in spring, hitting .267/.389/.733 with 2 HR in 18 PA.

Vogelbach’s main competition for an Opening Day role is Spencer Horwitz, a 26-year-old prospect who was Toronto’s 12th-ranked prospect in our 2024 Org Report. Horwitz is coming off of an impressive season (.337/.450/.495) for AAA-Buffalo in 2023 and has limited major league experience, hitting .256/.341/.385 in 44 PA for Toronto last year while receiving sporadic playing time. Thus far in spring, Horwitz has struggled offensively (.063/.250/.063 in 20 PA).

Votto’s readiness for a call-up could also have some bearing on whether Vogelbach or Horwitz makes the team coming out of spring. If Toronto feels that Votto is close to being major-league-ready, the team could opt to keep Horwitz to give Vogelbach an opportunity elsewhere. Conversely though, if they deem that Votto would benefit from a longer stint in AAA, they could opt to keep Vogelbach and re-evaluate as the season goes on.

 

New York Yankees

New York’s infield depth took a hit recently with the announcement that Oswald Peraza, who came into camp as a favorite for a role as a backup infielder, will begin the year on the injured list. New York has also reportedly been unsuccessful in targeting veterans for this role and had offered contracts to Kiké Hernández and Amed Rosario, among others, before they signed elsewhere. If New York does not agree to a deal with a remaining free agent, an in-house option will likely have to fill this role.

As of now, two of New York’s bench spots appear to be set in stone (backup catcher and Trent Grisham), while Oswaldo Cabrera is also penciled in for a super-utility role, leaving one spot for an infielder. Conceivably, Cabrera could fill in at any infield position, but with his offensive struggles last season (.211/.275/.299) and in spring thus far (.043/.084/.043 in 24 PA) New York would likely prefer to go elsewhere should one of its starting infielders go down with an injury.

Among the candidates for a role on New York’s 40-man roster is Jorbit Vivas, a prospect that the team acquired in a trade from the Dodgers in the offseason. The 2024 Minor League Baseball Analyst noted that Vivas has “superlative bat-to-ball skills,” identifying him as a 7D prospect with a future role of a utility player and an expected MLB debut in 2024. This spring has been a mixed bag for Vivas thus far as he’s shown impressive power (2 HR in 19 PA) but has also struck out 7 times in that span. Notably, Vivas has predominantly played at second base in his career and has spent some time at third base in spring, but does not have experience at shortstop.

New York also claimed former top prospect Jahmai Jones off waivers, giving him an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster after hitting .268/.413/.466 in 445 PA at the AAA level last year. Like Vivas, Jones is limited positionally as he has predominantly played either second base or the outfield during most of his career. Jones also does not have any minor league options remaining, meaning New York must risk losing him to waivers if he does not make the Opening Day roster.

New York also has a slew of non-roster invitees vying to make the Opening Day roster. The most notable non-roster invitee is Kevin Smith, a former top prospect who has seen major league action for Toronto and Oakland. Smith has struggled offensively at the major league level in his career (.173/.215/.301 in 333 PA across three seasons) but hit well in AAA last year (.324/.372/.653 in 183 PA) while in Oakland’s organization. Unlike Vivas and Jones, Smith can play a passable shortstop and could give New York an alternative to Cabrera as the backup there. Other infielders in New York’s organization include veteran journeyman Josh VanMeter and former top prospects Jeter Downs and Jordan Groshans.
 

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