NL West: Musical chairs in the Dodgers Infield

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' decision to move Mookie Betts to SS and Gavin Lux to 2B won’t have a significant impact on their overall playing time, but the move will trickle down to other players.

Betts is still expected to play about every day, and we project Lux for about 460 AB this season, mostly against righties against whom he hit .280/.351/.413 in 2022. While the Dodgers expect Lux to be their primary 2B, he could also see time in LF, where he played 28 games in 2022. This would give the Dodgers the option to go with an all left-handed hitting OF with Jason Heyward in RF, James Outman in CF and Lux in LF. The Dodgers employed this type of lineup frequently last season but expect to do so much less often this year with Teoscar Hernández expected to be the everyday LF. 

The larger impacts to playing time will be felt by last year’s regular SS Miguel Rojas and super utility players Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernández. 

Rojas was expected to see time at SS against left-handed pitchers, against whom he has had success (.275/.339/.399) over the last three years. He is now likely largely relegated to playing SS on the rare occasion when Betts receives a day off. He did see 10 games at 1B with the Marlins in 2022, so he could also see time there when Freddie Freeman is out of the lineup. 

Taylor, who appeared in games at 2B, SS, 3B and OF last season will primarily see time as Max Muncy’s backup at 3B, as Jason Heyward’s primary short-side platoon partner in RF and as a late-inning defensive replacement in LF for Teoscar Hernández. 

Like Taylor, Kiké Hernández saw action all over the field in 2023, appearing at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B and all three OF positions. He should see time at 2B against righties, in CF if James Outman sits against tough lefties, as part of the short-sided platoon in RF and as a late-inning defensive replacement.

With Betts already making a couple of errors at SS and Lux struggling to make even routine throws from 2B to 1B, the Dodgers could re-evaluate this decision in the coming weeks. If they do decide to move Betts back to 2B, they have other options at SS and can get Lux’s bat into the lineup in the outfield, particularly if the 34-year-old, left-handed hitting Heyward is unable to duplicate his somewhat surprising 2023 success.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Eduardo Rodriguez, who the Diamondbacks signed to a 4-year, $74 million contract in the off-season and Brandon Pfaadt, who had an impressive second half and post-season, headed into spring training with good grips on the third and fourth spots on the rotation. The addition of Rodriguez (3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% K-BB% in 152 IP with the Tigers last season) and the significantly improved performance of Pfaadt in the second half (4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB% in 70 IP) and in the post-season (3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 24% K-BB% in 22 IP) has solidified the middle of the Diamondbacks rotation.

With Drey Jameson out for the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in September and top pitching prospect Yu-Min Lin likely at least a year away , the final spot in the rotation looks to be between right-hander Ryne Nelson and left-hander Tommy Henry.

Nelson (5.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and just a 7% K-BB% over 144 IP) and Henry (4.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and also a mediocre 7% K-BB% over 89 IP) both saw time in the rotation in 2023 as manager Torey Lovullo cobbled together a starting five for most of the season. Henry’s season ended in July due to left elbow irritation and Lovullo chose to employ bullpen games in the post-season over starting Nelson, who appeared in three games in October, giving up four earned runs, striking out seven and walking one over 6 innings.

With just over two weeks until Opening Day, Nelson has produced better results this spring and appears to have moved ahead of Henry. Lovullo and Nelson have both been encouraged by Nelson’s progress as he has ramped up his pitch count. He has used his change-up a few times this spring against right-handed hitters, something he rarely did last season, as he looks to improve upon his 10.2% SwK% from last season.

 

San Diego Padres

Manny Machado is expected to be the Padres DH in their season-opening series March 20-21 in South Korea. After being bothered by a sore elbow for the latter part of the 2023 season he underwent surgery to repair the extensor tendon in October. While Machado has not been limited at the plate during spring training, he has yet to play 3B and recently took a several day break from throwing after experiencing soreness. He returned to throwing on Sunday, March 10, but the Padres have not given any real timeline for his first appearance at 3B and have indicated it is highly likely he will serve as the DH in South Korea.

While Machado is still an elite defender at 3B, the Padres likely won’t rush him back given his long-term contract and their lack of other good options at DH. Once Machado returns to playing 3B, we expect he will still receive regular turns at DH and project him to see about 65% of playing time at 3B over the course of the season.

With Machado still on the mend, 3B Matthew Batton was optioned to Triple-A El Paso on Monday, March 11. Eguy Rosario and non-roster-invitee Graham Pauley are the frontrunners for the Opening Day 3B job; both could make the roster. Rosario debuted with the Padres in 2022 and has hit .244/.279/.463 over 41 AB the last two seasons. He has seen most of his time at 3B in the majors, but has also played 2B and SS at the minor league level. Pauley hit .308/.393/.539 in 481 AB, with 23 HR and 22 SB across three levels of the minor leagues in 2023 after being drafted by the Padres in 2022. He is not known as a strong defender, but saw time at 2B, 3B and in LF in 2023. We project Rosario, Pauley and Batten (.258/.355/.358 in 120 AB with the Padres in 2023) to all see playing time around the diamond over the course of the season.

 

San Francisco Giants

The Giants starting rotation had plenty of question marks prior to spring training injuries to Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. However, help could be on the way sooner than expected, with Winn and Alex Cobb, who underwent hip surgery in October 2023, both potentially back sooner than expected.

Winn made his major league debut with the Giants in 2023 and pitched well (4.71 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 1.05 WHIP, 15% K-BB%) with just a 4% BB% over 42 innings that included five starts. Winn entered spring training with the inside track on the fourth spot in the rotation but was shut down in late February after experiencing soreness in his elbow. Winn is expected to pitch in a minor league spring training game on Wednesday, March 13, but won’t make his Cactus League debut for at least another week. There is a possibility he could be stretched out in time to join the Opening Day rotation, but if not, looks to be set to join the rotation early in April.

Cobb underwent left hip surgery in October 2023 and wasn’t originally expected to return until sometime in June. However, he has progressed much more quickly than expected and currently is scheduled to make his spring training debut on Saturday, March 16.  If he doesn’t experience any setbacks in Arizona, he could join the Giants sometimes in April. Cobb induces groundballs at a high rate (57% in 2023) and should benefit from the Giants signing of Matt Chapman to play 3B and the recent addition of Nick Ahmed, who looks like the favorite to begin the season as the starting SS. Cobb would slot into the second spot in the rotation behind Logan Webb.

Beck underwent surgery for an aneurysm in his upper right arm and won’t throw at all for at least eight weeks. Once he is cleared, he will need to progress through a throwing program prior to returning to action, so likely won’t return until at least June.

Robbie Ray, who was acquired from the Mariners in January, has been sidelined since May 2023 following Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected to return until after the All-Star Break. He was able to throw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Monday, March 11 and appears to be progressing without any setbacks. We have Ray projected for about nine starts and 50 innings over the second half of the season.

 

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies entered spring training with three candidates for the closer role – Justin Lawrence, Tyler Kinley and Daniel Bard. Manager Bud Black indicated earlier in spring training that he planned to name a closer prior to Opening Day, but with the opener just over two weeks away the competition has yet to be settled.

Lawrence, who was second on the Rockies last season with 11 saves, appeared to be the frontrunner heading into spring training. Kinley, who made his 2023 debut in August after recovering from 2022 flexor tendon surgery, finished the 2023 season as the closer, picking up five saves in September. Lawrence (11%) and Kinley (12%) both had elevated BB% in 2023, particularly for a closer in Coors Field. Lawrence’s 50% GB% and 28% FB% were better than Kinley’s 37% GB% and 41 FB%, which probably gives him a leg up in the competition.

Bard, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in mid-February, will not be ready by Opening Day. He did not appear in any games prior to the injury but may be able to begin a throwing program soon. He probably won’t be ready to return to the Rockies until at least late April but could insert himself into the closer conversation if Lawrence and Kinley struggle early on.

No matter who Black names as the closer, we wouldn’t expect either Lawrence or Kinley to garner more than 20 saves, with both likely to produce elevated ERAs and WHIPs and below average K-BB%.

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