NL Central: Injuries are shaking up the OF outlook in STL

St. Louis Cardinals 

The Cardinals appeared to have quite a stable lineup coming into the regular season, but both new and lingering injuries in the outfield have changed the outlook considerably. Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF,STL) has yet to make his spring debut while recovering from offseason wrist surgery, and he’s been shut down in his rehab multiple times in the last few weeks. He got second and third opinions on the injury, and while he’s painting a positive outlook based on the results of those evaluations, his status for Opening Day certainly seems to be in doubt. Meanwhile, Lars Nootbaar (OF, STL) fractured his ribs while playing defense in an exhibition game. He claims he’s shooting to return for the beginning of the regular season, but he’s set to be monitored for 10-14 days (as of Friday) with no guarantee he’ll be able to swing a bat in that span. 

The absence of both Nootbaar and Edman would knock out two of the team’s top options in center field for Opening Day. Old friend Dylan Carlson (OF, STL) is healthy and capable of handling the position defensively, so he would almost certainly see an increased role. Michael Siani (OF, STL) would also potentially be in line for a roster spot, albeit primarily in a bench role. And we can’t end the outfield conversation without mentioning Victor Scott (OF, STL), a name that became better known thanks to his performance in the Arizona Fall League. He’s followed that up with a .375 on-base percentage across 24 plate appearances in spring. The most recent reports suggest he’s still unlikely to make the roster, but he’s a name to know – whether it be for late spring drafts or mid-season waiver-wire bids. 

If only one of Nootbaar and Edman isn’t ready, we’d see an opening in a corner outfield spot. That would likely set up a battle between Carlson and Alec Burleson (OF, STL) for a spot in the Opening Day starting lineup. If both Nootbaar and Edman are out, Burleson would also likely be assured time in the lineup in a corner outfield/DH role. 

 

Cincinnati Reds 

The significant plot twists in the NL Central began early this year with the news that Noelvi Marte (3B, CIN) is suspended for the first half of the 2024 season. The natural reaction is to jump to answer the question of what this means for the rest of the crowded lineup, but let’s start with the impact on Marte himself. In the short term, the primary question will be what happens with Marte once he completes his suspension. While it might be a glass-half-full view of the situation, when asked about how the team would make up for the absence of Marte, manager David Bell made sure to note that it was no guarantee Marte would be on the Opening Day roster. Based on that comment and simply the depth the team boasts, assuming things go according to plan for the Reds offensively this season, it certainly seems fair to question whether we see Marte in the majors at all in 2024. 

Now, let’s shift to the impact on the players on the active roster. Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B, CIN) won’t necessarily see an impact on his playing time, but he should see nearly all of it at third base. That leaves a combination of Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, CIN) and Jonathan India (2B, CIN) to man first base.  Bell has publicly stated that he’s more inclined to use India in a utility role, but India did get a start at first base in his spring debut Friday. 

If we take Bell at his word and pencil Encarnacion-Strand in at first base and leave India without an everyday position, Will Benson (OF, CIN) and Jake Fraley (OF, CIN) could be the biggest winners of all. Assuming Encarnacion-Strand was set to be on the roster before Marte’s suspension, one of Benson or Fraley was likely to be primarily a bench bat. The shift to play Encarnacion-Strand at first base would open up DH, and likely give Fraley an opening to step into the lineup (leaving Benson for a more regular role in right field). Perhaps none of this trio plays a truly everyday role, but they all stand to benefit from the suspension. 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

The picture behind the plate in Pittsburgh has changed several times over this offseason. That began with the news that Endy Rodríguez (C, PIT) suffered a torn UCL and would be lost for the season. That news emerged at roughly the same time that the team announced it was still committed to giving Henry Davis (OF, PIT) time behind the plate, despite spending only two innings at the position in his big-league debut. Then came the Yasmani Grandal (C, PIT) signing, accompanied by rumblings that Davis may potentially start the season in the minors. 

Davis has done everything he can to prove he’s deserving of a roster spot to begin the season during spring training, including mashing four home runs in only 23 plate appearances. Also important is his usage. He’s worked 37 innings behind the plate defensively. In that span, he’s thrown out one of three would-be base stealers, a small sample but another encouraging sign. General manager Ben Cherington called Davis “not noticeable” defensively, which was meant in a positive way. 

The other thing in favor of Davis making the roster is that Grandal is dealing with plantar fasciitis. He hasn’t caught a game since late February. He’ll reportedly return to games soon, but we’ve yet to see that happen (through Sunday). Neither Jason Delay (C, PIT) nor Ali Sánchez (C, PIT) are credible reasons to keep Davis off the roster, and he has also done his part to force the team’s hand with his performance this spring. 

 

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are in an interesting position at catcher as well. Yan Gomes (C, CHC) enjoyed a resurgent 2023 season, posting his highest BPX across a full campaign since 2014. However, entering his age-36 season and the final year of his deal with Chicago, it’s fair to consider if and when the team begins to shift playing time behind the plate. The first factor will be the play of Gomes himself, as a repeat of last year seems unlikely given his track record of skills. The other factor that is more out of his control is the play of the team as a whole. If the Cubs are out of contention or playing relatively poorly early this season, it would make sense to shift to an option that could have a long-term role with the team. 

That will make it an important season for Miguel Amaya (C, CHC). General manager Carter Hawkins confirmed that in comments, noting that Amaya would have a chance to learn behind Gomes, but that the team expected him to show well when given an opportunity. As a prospect, he was touted more for his glove than bat, but he’s posted consistently above-average seasons at each level of the minors and also showed potential (along with significant warts) in his small big-league sample last season (116 xPX, 67 ct%). 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

We’ve spent a lot of time trying to project playing time along the Brewers infield entering 2024, but one position that appeared fairly certain was second base. Brice Turang (2B/SS, MIL) dominated innings at the position last season while even making a cameo at shortstop. This offseason, the team has thinned itself at some positions, but also notably added some versatility along the infield with Joey Ortiz (SS, MIL) being a key piece of the return the Corbin Burnes (RHP, BAL) trade. With Tyler Black (3B, MIL) also nearing his big-league debut, the beginning of the season looks to be a key period for Turang. 

His excellent defensive work will buy him time to develop his bat, but he showed a lack of ability to make hard contact in his first shot in the majors (82 HctX, 46 PX, 83 xPX, 2.9 Brl%). Turang was also particularly miserable against same-handed pitching (zero XBH in 73 PA). Combined, that puts his playing time at risk if no improvement occurs. Ortiz offers the same defensive prowess as Turang, making him a natural fit to take over at second base. That begs the question of what the team will do with Willy Adames (SS, MIL), who was in trade rumors for the entire offseason. In a winnable division, it’s head to imagine the Brewers dealing him at this point, unless they fell out of contention. As a result, if Ortiz breaks camp with the team, his playing time is likely to come at third base.

That leads us to Tyler Black (3B, MIL). His natural position is third base, but he has also has experience at second base as recently as 2022 with High-A Wisconsin and in the Arizona Fall League. If he’s called up with Adames still on the roster and Ortiz performing well, that could be another bad sign for Turang’s playing time. The wild card is the potential of Sal Frelick (OF, MIL) moving to the infield, as he’s appeared in just as many games at third base (five) as in the outfield this spring (through Saturday). 

Needless to say, there are a lot of moving pieces in this infield, but Turang likely needs to have a good start to the season to cement a consistent future role in Milwaukee. 

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