NL Central: Jones makes his pitch for a rotation spot

Pittsburgh Pirates 

In this column one month ago, a brief line was included at the conclusion of the Pirates’ section that noted Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) and Jared Jones (RHP, PIT) as long shots to make the rotation out of spring training. There was also a promise to update that outlook as needed, and we’ve hit that point with Jones. He wowed with his velocity to begin camp, but through three outings, he had just three strikeouts across 4.2 innings. Since, he’s put up a 7:1 K:BB across 6.2 innings, and his most impressive outing may have come March 16. In that appearance, he faced an Atlanta lineup at nearly full strength (missing Ronald Acuña Jr.), and allowed three baserunners across four innings while striking out four. There has been some indication that Pittsburgh truly hopes to be more competitive this season, and if they want their five best pitchers in the rotation to begin the regular season schedule, Jones should be included. 

With Marco Gonzales (LHP, PIT), Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT), and Martín Pérez (LHP, PIT) all locked in, Jones would fill one of two remaining spots. The last spot remains a mess to project, though Roansy Contreras (RHP, PIT) has almost certainly pitched his way off the big-league roster this spring (4:10 K:BB across 10.2 innings) despite being out of minor-league options. The best bet could be boring vet Chase Anderson (RHP, PIT), who had pitched well until Sunday’s outing against the Rays. Despite that slip up, he has a 9:3 K:BB across 11 innings this spring while allowing only three earned runs. Signed to a minor-league deal, he could take Contreras’s spot on the 40-man roster. Luis L. Ortiz (RHP, PIT) has showed improved pitchability, but he’s still walked seven across 12 innings. Don’t count him out, though. 

 

Cincinnati Reds 

We spent last week’s portion of the column discussing how the Reds could use their depth to cover for the absence of Noelvi Marte (3B, CIN). The team may be further tested after T.J. Friedl (OF, CIN) exited Saturday’s Cactus League game with what was termed then as a sprained wrist, but downgraded Sunday to a wrist fracture. He will be reassessed ton three to four weeks, so let's take this opportunity to survey the team’s depth in the outfield. 

Stuart Fairchild (OF, CIN) seems like be the likeliest candidate to take over in center field. There isn’t much compelling in his profile offensively (career 60 BPX), but he’s best equipped to handle to the position defensively. 

There also aren’t many viable alternatives. In what now appear to be poorly timed transactions, the team dumped both Jose Barrero (SS, TEX) and Nick Senzel (3B/OF, WAS) this offseason, leaving them thin in the outfield. Will Benson (OF, CIN) has played only 88 innings in center field in the majors, and the defensive returns suggest he’s better off at a corner position (-3 DRS). To the extent that the team prioritizes offense, moving Benson to center field would likely push Jake Fraley (OF, CIN) into a regular corner outfield role. 

One name to keep an eye on could be Tony Kemp (2B/OF, CIN), who is in camp on a non-roster deal. He hasn’t played in center field since 2019, but is capable of playing in left field. The absence of Marte and potential absence of Friedl enhance his chances of making the roster. 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are another team with some interesting roster construction issues. In addition to sorting out playing time at second and third base, it also appears that there is a legitimate chance for the team to carry three catchers. William Contreras (C, MIL) is a lock as one of the team’s best hitters. Gary Sánchez (C, MIL) has worked through a hand injury this spring, which at one point seemed to have the potential to delay his start to the regular season. That issue appears to be resolved though, as he’s since made his Cactus League debut and has 19 plate appearances under his belt (through Saturday). Expect him on the Opening Day roster as well, potentially in the lineup as the DH. 

That leaves Eric Haase (C/OF, MIL) as the third potential inclusion at the position. He was signed by the Brewers this offseason, at the time as a backup option for Contreras. Now, his fit is a bit unclear, though reports suggest the team may have interest in keeping him on the roster, but comments from manager Pat Murphy have been non-committal. He has both praised Haase while also explaining that it would be difficult for the team to carry three catchers (via Curt Hogg on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). 

There appears to be one potential path that makes sense for Haase to remain on the roster, which would require the team to rely on Sal Frelick (OF, MIL) as their primary third baseman and to option Joey Ortiz (SS, MIL). The possibility of the former was mentioned in this space previously, and Frelick has since made more appearances at third base than in the outfield (seven versus six). That would allow the Brewers to take maximum advantage of Haase’s defensive abilities, as he is capable of playing both a corner outfield spot as well as behind the plate and at DH.

 

Chicago Cubs 

By all public accounts, the Cubs have liked what they’ve seen from Michael Busch (3B, CHC) as he attempts to transition to first base this spring. Manager Craig Counsell complimented his defense, citing the calmness and athleticism he is bringing to the position. He’s also delivered at the plate, maintaining a 22.6 percent strikeout rate with four extra-base hits across 31 plate appearances. Things certainly seem to be lining up for him to take large side platoon at-bats at first base, at a minimum, to begin the season. 

That isn’t to say the team doesn’t have contingency plans. Patrick Wisdom (3B,CHC) is expected to serve as the primary backup first baseman after losing the starting third base job to Christopher Morel (OF,CHC) this offseason. His combination of experience and production at the big-league level should mean the team likely won’t hesitate to look his way should Busch struggle. He also fits as a right-handed bat. 

Further down the depth chart, we have what appears to be a three-way battle for one roster spot between Dominic Smith (1B, CHC), Garrett Cooper (1B, CHC), and Matt Mervis (1B, CHC). Mervis holds the primary advantage of being the only one of that trio currently on the 40-man roster, and he also would be a lefty bench bat – something the team is otherwise lacking. If the team still believes he has a future as an everyday player, they may send him to AAA for everyday at-bats. That brings us to Smith and Cooper. Both have hit well this spring, with Smith once again having the potential advantage due to his handedness. There was some minor news that emerged revolving around Smith this week, as he disclosed that he underwent hamate surgery in January – potentially resolving wrist pain that has plagued him since he reached the majors. 

 

St. Louis Cardinals 

Even with injuries to the team’s outfield this offseason and in spring training, the Cardinals lineup looks to be relatively well set. Both Masyn Winn (SS, STL) and Alec Burleson (OF, STL) line up to have regular jobs at shortstop and in the outfield, but they will be under pressure to perform immediately as St. Louis looks to retake command of the Central. 

The threat to Winn is direct after the addition of Brandon Crawford (SS, STL) this spring. Winn was reportedly told the starting shortstop job was “his to seize” even after the addition of Crawford, but he hasn’t exactly done that this spring by striking out at a 32.4 percent clip with only three doubles across 29 plate appearances. Crawford isn’t likely to offer much in terms of an upgrade offensively, but he does still have excellent range at shortstop (per Statcast). That isn’t true of Winn, whose primary defensive value comes from his arm strength. Despite the focus of fantasy leagues being offensive stats, we'll be watching Winn’s defense early in the season, assuming he does come out of the exhibition season with the starting job. 

Matt Carpenter is in a different situation. He has embraced a mentorship role for younger players on the roster and knows he won’t be returning to his peak performances of 2015-2018 with the club. That doesn’t necessarily exclude him from making an impact on the field, however. In a recent roster projection, Mark Denton of MLB.com penciled in Carpenter to begin the season as the DH, with Burleson a bench option. While that goes against conventional wisdom, there is at least some sentiment that Carpenter will contribute this season. Burleson’s primary issue is also his defense, which would be mitigated by at least partial playing time at DH. Even if he comes away with playing time early, Burleson will face a playing time crunch as soon as either Lars Nootbaar or Tommy Edman is ready to return. 

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