Bellinger, E. Rodriguez, Hoerner, A. Chapman, Moreno

Bellinger stays in Chicago  ... With a rebound season to a $28 R$ in 2023, Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) has a 55 ADP in 2024 drafts. With dual eligibility, can he come close to a repeat with the Cubs?

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA/xBA	bb%	ct%	G/L/F	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Spd	SBO%
2019	660	47	15	.305/.306	17%	81%	31/26/42	31%	136	155/165	108	11%
2020	243	12	6	.239/.267	13%	80%	38/22/41	25%	125	112/122	84	11%
2021	350	10	3	.165/.205	9%	70%	31/22/48	20%	87	82/109	100	6%
2022	550	19	14	.210/.225	6%	70%	36/17/47	26%	102	125/124	119	17%
2023	557	26	20	.307/.279	7%	82%	36/21/43	33%	101	116/110	112	19%

Even with some power metric declines, his profile supports close to a repeat:

• Bellinger maintained an above-average xPX, but a 6% Brl% in the 27th percentile contributed to 18 xHR. His FB% was close to his career FB% while he had a 315 feet average fly ball distance with a 91.1 MPH exit velocity on fly balls. He had a 43.6% Pull% in 2023, and he has a 140 career xPX, 17% career HR/F, and 44% career FB%. 
• By keeping his SB% at 80%, he utilized his above-average Spd well, as his 20 xSB matched his SB total. According to Statcast, his sprint speed finished in the 75th percentile. For his career, he has a 114 Spd, 81% SB%, and 12% SBO%. 
• A career-high ct% contributed to a BA increase. With a near league-average HctX, some line drives and a h% swing helped his BA efforts. For his career, he has a 113 HctX, 29% h%, and .264 xBA. 
• He improved his ct% vL to 83% in 2023, and he had a .990 OPS vL with a 138 PX vL. 

A return to middle of the Chicago lineup could help Bellinger repeat most of his counting stats. Sustaining his improved ct% supports an above-average BA while his speed says he can chase a 20-SB season again. Monitor the power, as while xHR, HR/F, and Brl% are doubtful, his Pull% and FB% give him a chance for a mid-20's HR finish. While there could be some power pullback, the HQ projection in the Straight Draft Guide believes in Bellinger. 

 

Rodriguez joins Arizona ... With Detroit in 2023, Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, ARI) returned a positive R$ with a $13 R$. With a move to Arizona, what can we expect for the lefty?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%	K%	K-BB%	Ball%	SwK	Vel	G/L/F	H%/S%	HR/F/xHR/F
2019	203	3.81/4.10	9%	25%	16%	37%	12.1%	93.1	48/19/33	32%/75%	13%/15%
2020	Did Not Play
2021	158	4.74/3.70	7%	27%	20%	35%	12.1%	92.6	43/22/34	37%/68%	13%/11%
2022*	106	3.58/3.84	8%	21%	13%	37%	7.8%	91.8	43/19/37	29%/75%	12%/12%
2023	153	3.30/4.11	7%	23%	15%	35%	10.7%	92.2	41/22/37	28%/75%	9%/11%
*Includes MLEs

Even though his ratios may rise, he has the skills (115 career BPV) for a double-digit R$:

• The southpaw missed a few more bats with his four-seam fastball's 9.1% SwK, and his change-up's 16.4% SwK with a 40.4% O-Swing% creates swings and misses. Rodriguez has a 23% career K% and 8.4% career SwK. 
• With a league-average GB%, a H% decline helped his ratios. The lefty finished with a league-average HardHit% against and a 7.5% Brl% against in the 58th percentile. He has a 33% career h%, 11% career HR/F, and 4.20 career xERA. 
• He kept his BB% in the 61st percentile with his Ball% and 63% FpK. He does have an 8% career BB% with a 1.29 career WHIP. 
• The lefty had a 42% DOM%, and his new home park, Chase Field, has a -21% LHB HR and -28% RHB HR. 

At his 192 ADP, Rodriguez can offer innings and some mid-round value. Despite his career SwK, his career K% points to average strikeouts. Some expected H% regression could move his 2024 ERA toward the mid-3.00s Even with a playable BB%, his career WHIP forecasts a higher 2024 WHIP. Even so, the skills (110 BPV) and spacious home park back a double-digit R$ if his health (Grade D) cooperates. 

 

Hoerner doubles SB total ...  By doubling his stolen base total from 2022, Nico Hoerner (2B, CHC) provided fantasy rosters with a $23 R$ in 2023. At his 59 ADP, what can he offer rosters?

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA/xBA	bb%	ct%	G/L/F	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Spd	SBO%
2019*	370	6	7	.277/.298	6%	87%	53/25/22	30%	80	60/ 48	135	12%
2020	125	0	3	.222/.230	10%	78%	55/21/24	29%	92	29/ 59	107	15%
2021*	196	0	5	.290/.246	9%	82%	48/23/29	35%	80	48/ 41	110	13%
2022	517	10	20	.281/.274	5%	88%	46/21/33	30%	92	73/ 66	144	17%
2023	688	9	43	.283/.260	7%	86%	47/19/34	31%	83	56/ 67	134	27%
*Includes MLEs

Hoerner can provide BA with SB and some counting stats but not much power: 

• Above-average Spd and a healthy SBO% pair well with his 84% SB%. For his career, he has a 20% SB0%, 133 Spd, and 82% SB%. 
• Consistent ct% comes with the profile, as he has an 86% career ct%. While his below-average HctX could be a concern, he does have a 20% career LD%, and he uses the field well with 40% of his contact in the middle of the field and a 29% Oppo%. Hoerner has a .281 career BA with a .266 career xBA. 
• The below-average xPX pattern and a 4% HR/F don't show much power, as also seen in his 1.8% Brl% in the second percentile. With a 32% career FB% and 5% career HR/F, he had an 87.8 MPH exit velocity on fly balls with a 298 feet average fly ball distance in 2023. 

When looking for speed sources, Hoerner has the speed skills, chances, and success rate to make a run at 40 SB. Luckily, steady ct% and using all fields back an above-average BA that can help fantasy rosters. Fantasy managers should not count on much power, as seen in his xPX history and fly ball metrics. While his SB, BA, and counting stats can provide a $20+ R$, fantasy managers will have to watch their roster construction to manage around his lack of power. 

 

Chapman moves to Pittsburgh pen ... After posting improved 2023 ratios and a velocity bump, Aroldis Chapman (LHP, PIT) became a member of the Pirates in the offseason. With his Grade D Health rating, what can he provide when he's healthy?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%	K%	K-BB%	Ball%	SwK	Vel	G/L/F	H%/S%
2019	57	2.21/3.08	11%	36%	26%	35%	14.7%	98.4	42/28/30	32%/82%
2020	12	3.09/2.50	9%	49%	40%	32%	20.1%	98.1	22/22/56	27%/75%
2021	56	3.36/3.14	16%	40%	23%	39%	17.0%	98.5	43/19/38	30%/82%
2022	36	4.46/4.72	17%	26%	9%	40%	13.3%	97.7	36/18/46	25%/71%
2023	58	3.09/2.74	14%	41%	26%	36%	18.1%	99.6	48/21/31	35%/77%

Chapman can add strikeouts and a favorable ERA to rosters:

• Adding two ticks of velocity helped his four-seam fastball's 13% SwK. The lefty also creates whiffs with his sinker (25.1% SwK) and slider (20.3% SwK). His 41.4% K% finished in the 100th percentile, and he has a 40% career K%. 
• Chapman added ground balls in 2023, as his fastball (44% GB%) and slider (44% GB%) returned closer to his career GB% with those pitches. The southpaw has a 30% career H% and 2.52 career ERA.
• Even with his Ball% improvement, his BB% finished in the second percentile. He has a 12% career BB% and 57% career FpK. 

Those fantasy managers in NL-only leagues and deeper leagues looking for strikeouts with a favorable ERA after pick 400 can add Chapman's name to the list. His career K% and ability to miss bats say he has the skills for 100+ strikeouts, and he misses enough bats with a decent GB% to provide a low 3.00's ERA. Just know that the BB% and WHIP could be a riskier result. While the SV total will likely remain in the single digits, his $7 projected R$ can play as a reserve pick in deeper leagues. 

 

Moreno finds success ... During his first season with Arizona, Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI) provided a $10 R$. With a move to his 150 ADP in 2024 drafts, can he repeat his 2023 line? 

Year	PA	HR	xHR	BA/xBA	bb%	ct%	G/L/F	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	QBaB	Brl%
2021^	147	7	1	.332/N/A	8%	81%	N/A	37%	N/A	128/N/A	N/A	N/A
2022*	329	4	6	.289/.250	7%	81%	57/18/25	35%	64	61/ 26	BDd	2%
2023	380	7	8	.286/.272	7%	78%	55/23/22	35%	105	80/ 69	BFc	5%
^AA/AAA MLEs
*Includes MLEs

Yes, the BA should help rosters at C while he waits on his power: 

• Moreno makes good ct% and the growth in HctX is encouraging. According to Statcast, his 41.8% HardHit% finished in the 56th percentile. 
• Even with a small Brl% bump, his Brl% was in the 16th percentile. His below-average xPX contributed to a tepid xHR. 
• With a heavy GB%, he has an 11% career HR/F. When he does hit the ball in the air, he had a 91.6 MPH exit velocity on fly balls with a 319 feet average fly ball distance. 
• Moreno had average Spd with an 8% SBO% and 75% SB%. 

When looking for a catcher that can provide a helpful BA with a few steals, Moreno is an option in the middle rounds. While his power metrics do not forecast much power, his plate skills can provide BA value at a position where there are many BA drains. Throw in some counting stats, and his double-digit R$ can work as a first catcher option at pick 150.  

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