Lewis, Friedl, Javier, J. Rojas, J. Brito

Can Lewis capitalize on that late-season magic?... A huge push in August and September (.295 BA, 11 HR, 5 SB in 140 PA) along with 4 HR in the postseason has greatly boosted the stock of former #1 overall pick Royce Lewis (3B, MIN), though his injuries remain a sizable concern. What do his skill suggest we can expect as he follows up with what will hopefully be his first full season? 

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA	xBA	bb%	ct%	GB/LD/FB	HctX	PX	xPX	HR/F	Spd	SB%	SBO
2022+	153	3	8	.255	N/A	8%	72%	N/A	N/A	120	N/A	N/A	122	N/A	N/A
22MLB	41	2	0	.300	.305	2%	87%	31/20/48	126	150	141	12%	92	0%	0%
2023^	59	4	3	.292	N/A	8%	62%	N/A	N/A	180	N/A	N/A	82	N/A	N/A
23MLB	239	15	6	.309	.262	8%	74%	35/20/43	96	131	101	21%	95	85%	10%

^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
+Triple-A MLEs

Injury risk isn't the only reason to adjust expectations a little:

• Lewis posted a .309 batting average after also hitting .300 in a small sample in 2022, but in 2023, the skills weren't there to back that high BA. His contact and line drive rates were merely average, and a high fly ball rate dragged down his xBA. Things did improve in his outstanding second half (.283 xBA), but that was partly due to a 163 PX that's likely to regress a little. Most scouts believe he'll eventually become a perennial .300 hitter, but for 2024, a BA in the .275 range seems more realistic.
• That PX regression is suggested by gaps in both his full-season PX and xPX, and his second-half numbers (163 PX, 121 xPX), and is bolstered further by slight gaps between his 15 HR and 12 xHR, and his 21% HR/F and 17% xHR/F. (And those gaps were also present in the second half: 11 HR vs. 9 xHR, 22% HR/F vs. 18% xHR/F.) He did a great job of barreling the ball (11.7%), and his 90.2 mph exit velocity was above average, with a jump to 93.5 mph in September. As with batting average, his long-term power outlook is very promising, but for 2024, 25-30 HR is more realistic than the 40-HR upside suggested by that second-half outburst.
• It's reasonable to think that knee injuries have taken a toll on his speed potential, though he's shown that his running game is not dead yet. His MLB Spd score was slightly below average, but he ran at a decent clip (and raised his SBO% up to 16% in the second half) while stealing at a very successful rate, putting double-digit steals on the table for 2024, if he's able to stay healthy.
• And that remains a big if. Over the last three seasons, Lewis has only been on the field for a total of 492 PA combined in both the majors and minors. His F Health grade in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster was well-earned. Betting on a full season of health is a risky proposition.

The 24-year-old Lewis looks ready to break out, and even if the upside of his second half is likely out of reach, the level of performance supported by his skills would still make him highly valuable, as evidenced by our current BaseballHQ projection of a .279 BA, 33 HR, 82 RBI, 78 R, and 15 SB over 544 PA, which would be worth $30 in rotisserie value. But that also requires him staying on the field for a PA total that's higher than the number of PA he's logged over the last three seasons combined. Lewis could quickly become a star, but for now, he's best acquired at a discount that reflects his risk.

 

Friedl's surprise season has underlying question marks... In his first season as a full-time player, TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) surprised with a breakout performance, earning $23 in rotisserie value thanks to 18 HR, 27 SB, and a .279 BA. Was there enough skill behind any of it to think he could be equally valuable in 2024?

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA	xBA	bb%	ct%	GB/LD/FB	HctX	PX	xPX	HR/F	Spd	SB%	SBO
2021+	448	10	10	.224	N/A	8%	79%	N/A	N/A	71	N/A	N/A	97	N/A	N/A
21MLB	36	1	0	.290	.249	11%	93%	30/20/50	101	60	68	7%	113	0%	0%
2022+	241	6	7	.226	N/A	9%	71%	N/A	N/A	96	N/A	N/A	105	N/A	N/A
22MLB	258	8	7	.240	.246	7%	82%	32/18/50	101	109	111	9%	132	77%	17%
2023	556	18	27	.279	.262	8%	82%	38/20/42	83	99	69	11%	137	82%	23%

+Triple-A MLEs

There are several reasons to think his value will take a step back:

• Friedl's .279 batting average was significantly better than his Triple-A MLEs and his showing in the majors in 2022, but the jump didn't come with as much growth in his xBA, leaving a 17-point gap between the two. He does a good job of putting the bat on the ball, but his high fly ball rate and average-to-slightly-below-average LD% and PX don't help him capitalize on that good contact rate. His career xBA is .256, so .260 really seems like the realistic ceiling for now.
• But even that might be a little high, as xPX suggests some sizable regression could be in store for his power output, which would lower his xBA. And large gaps between his 18 HR and 5 xHR, and his 11% HR/F and 3% xHR/F add to the concern, as do a subpar 3.2 Barrel% and 86.7 mph exit velocity, making his 2023 HR total look pretty fluky. He did benefit from the homer-friendliness of Great American Ballpark (+46% LH HR), where he hit 13 of his 18 HR, so that could potentially soften the regression a bit. He might be able to stay in double digits, but don't expect a repeat.
• Steals look like the most stable aspect of his value, with an elite Spd score and strong SB% and SBO% marks. He did benefit from a .352 OBP in 2023, and regression in his batting average would take a bite out of that, so again, it's probably best not to expect a full repeat here either.

At 28, it's tempting to think Friedl has hit his prime and has turned himself into a more complete offensive player, but the skills just don't support everything from his breakout 2023 season. His home park should help soften the blow, though if he were to regress to the levels suggested by his xBA and xHR, that would lead to a pretty painful drop in fantasy value. Be cautious when targeting him this spring, as valuing him at a level comparable to last season could put you in a very precarious position.

 

Javier looks to rebound after rough year... Last year at this time, Cristian Javier (RHP, HOU) was riding high, coming off of a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP performance in 2022, and dominant work in the postseason, and when he got off to a 7-1, 2.90 ERA, 1.04 WHIP start in 2023, it appeared he was living up to those raised expectations. But it all unraveled after that, as he posted a 6.20 ERA and 1.49 WHIP over his final 17 starts. So which Javier should we expect to see in 2024?

Year	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	BB%	K%	K-BB%	GB/LD/FB	H%	S%	HR/F	FpK%	SwK%	BPV
2020	54	3.48	0.99	4.58	8%	25%	17%	29/19/52	20%	77%	15%	47%	8.9%	96
2021	101	3.55	1.18	4.21	13%	31%	18%	28/24/49	25%	77%	14%	50%	13.6%	96
2022	149	2.54	0.95	3.52	9%	33%	24%	26/17/57	24%	80%	9%	55%	14.2%	151
2023	162	4.56	1.27	5.07	9%	23%	14%	26/19/56	28%	68%	10%	55%	12.1%	81

Don't count on the dominant version of Javier returning:

• While 2022 represented a strong step forward in Javier's skills, with improvements in his BB% and K-BB%, he was also helped greatly by a low hit and HR/F rates, and a high strand rate, leaving his xERA nearly a full run higher. And his hot start to 2023 wasn't supported by skill either, as by mid-season, he was sporting a 3.72 ERA, but a 4.91 xERA. So his second-half downturn was at least partly regression.
• But a second-half backslide in his control skills (11% BB%, 10% xBB%) didn't help either, and since he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, those extra walks create more baserunners and potentially damaging home runs.
• What also didn't help was a steep drop in his K%, which came in concert with loss in SwK and velocity (93.9 mph in 2022, 92.8 mph in 2023). And a big chunk of those lost strikeouts were the result of a loss of effectiveness on his slider, a pitch he threw 30.0% of the time in 2023. His SwK on the pitch went from 16.9% in 2022 to 10.2% in 2023, and his Ball% on the pitch also went from an already-subpar 38% in 2022 to 43% in 2023, as he reportedly struggled with his release point. His overall SwK stayed slightly above average, and his rates in 2021-22 were solidly elite, so perhaps working on his mechanics will lead to a rebound.

As he enters his age-27 season, with only one full season as a starter under his belt, you can make the argument that Javier still has some room for growth and improvement, but his consistently high FB% limits his ERA upside, and if he can't restore his strikeout rate, those extra balls in play are going to hurt his ERA and WHIP. When trying to value him for 2024, his career 4.38 xERA is a better guideline than his career 3.57 ERA.

 

Is Rojas really a .300 hitter?... Johan Rojas (OF, PHI) made quite an impression in a second-half call-up for the Phillies in 2023, batting .302 with 14 SB over 164 PA, which probably gave a nice value bump to any fantasy managers fortunate enough to have him on their roster. Is he a good bet to build on those numbers over a full season?

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA	xBA	bb%	ct%	GB/LD/FB	HctX	PX	xPX	HR/F	Spd	SB%	SBO
2022#	260	3	20	.222	N/A	6%	79%	N/A	N/A	58	N/A	N/A	159	N/A	N/A
2023#	354	8	24	.274	N/A	6%	79%	N/A	N/A	90	N/A	N/A	134	N/A	N/A
23MLB	164	2	14	.302	.238	3%	72%	46/21/34	75	84	44	6%	147	93%	38%

#Double-A MLEs

The speed was real, the batting average was not:

• On the surface, it's tempting to think Rojas's batting average success was legitimate, since he hit .303 in Double-A prior to his call-up, but the MLE conversion on that BA took him down to .274, and in the majors, a fluky 41% hit rate greatly inflated his numbers, leaving a 64-point gap between his BA and his xBA. He made less contact in the majors, and with only a league average line drive rate and very little power, he doesn't have any of the skills you'd look for in a .300 hitter.
• The lack of power was particularly bad, as his xPX was tied for 10th-lowest among all hitters with at least 150 PA in 2023, and his QBaB score, which measures exit velocity and launch angle, was a lousy FDf. He did hit 2 HR in the majors, but his skills netted out to 0 xHR and a 0% xHR/F, suggesting that even his paltry HR total was a fluke. He did show some power growth in Double-A, so he's not a completely lost cause, but it may take some time to develop in the majors, and his skills seem unlikely to ever become above average.
• His steals were the one thing that weren't fluky, as both his Spd score and Statcast sprint speed (96th percentile) were elite, he was only caught stealing once in 15 attempts, and his extremely high SBO% indicates a high level of managerial confidence in his ability. However, he also benefitted from a .342 OBP that, with the expected regression to his BA, he's highly unlikely to repeat in 2024, so the 40-SB pace at which he was stealing will almost certainly slow down.

The 23-year-old Rojas is the leading candidate to win the center field job for Philadelphia in 2024, and his well-regarded defense could keep him there while he tries to find his footing at the plate. But even with the glove, there are limits to what the Phillies will tolerate, and if he's hitting .230 with no power, there's risk they'll look to replace him with someone else. With enough playing time, he could make a run at 30+ SB, but with these hitting skills, you can't really bet more than an endgame flyer on that possibility.

 

Brito's relief work gives reason to take another look... Jhony Brito (RHP, SD) was part of the trade package that the Padres received this offseason for Juan Soto, and after working both as a starter and reliever for the Yankees, he's a candidate to win the final spot in the San Diego rotation this spring. Should he be on your draft radar?

Year	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	BB%	K%	K-BB%	GB/LD/FB	H%	S%	HR/F	FpK%	SwK%	BPV
2021#	48	5.74	1.37	N/A	4%	19%	15%	N/A	34%	74%	N/A	N/A	N/A	78
2022^	114	3.05	1.20	N/A	7%	17%	10%	N/A	28%	77%	N/A	N/A	N/A	71
2023+	37	5.81	1.63	N/A	9%	17%	7%	N/A	32%	70%	N/A	N/A	N/A	15
23MLB	90	4.28	1.22	4.56	7%	19%	11%	44/16/40	30%	69%	13%	59%	9.6%	88

#Double-A MLEs
^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
+Triple-A MLEs

In deep leagues, he might be worth a look:

• Brito didn't make much of an impression in his MLB debut, posting a league average ERA backed by mostly mediocre skills. He did manage a strong walk rate, with a 6% xBB% that indicates the control skill was real, but good control alone typically isn't enough to cut it anymore in the majors. Which is why he found himself shuttled between the rotation, bullpen, and Triple-A in 2023.
• But it was during that work in relief that Brito got a chance to shine, posting a 1.43 ERA over 37.2 IP (compared to a 6.32 ERA as a starter). He also backed up the improved bullpen performance with superior skills: a 5% BB%, 24% K%, and a 19% K-BB.
• Some of that might be explained by his platoon splits. Against left-handed batters, he issued more walks (9% BB%) while struggling to strike guys out (15% K%) while allowing a .775 OPS that would've been higher if not for a slightly low 28% hit rate.

The 26-year-old Brito spent his first two minor league seasons in rookie ball until Tommy John surgery ended his 2017 season early and cost him all of 2018; he then also missed 2020 due to the cancellation of that year's minor league season. So he's not as far along in his development as some other pitchers his age. His improved skills in the bullpen were enough to earn him an UP: 3.75 ERA in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster, and as a reliever, he could definitely make a run at that mark or better. As a starter, his track record in the majors and minors gives reason for doubt, but if he can carry some of the improvements he made in the bullpen over to the rotation, he could be intriguing. And now that he'll be playing his home games in one of the league's most pitcher-friendly parks, that could give him a boost as well. Track his progress this spring—he could be worth some endgame speculation, depending on the depth of your league.

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