G. Rodriguez, Soler, Julien, Burleson, Schreiber

What do Rodriguez's ups and downs mean for 2024?... Grayson Rodriguez's (RHP, BAL) rookie season took some wild swings, as he went from a 7.40 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his first 10 MLB starts to being lights-out in Triple-A (1.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 8 GS), and then followed that up with a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 13 GS in his return to the majors. Which version of Rodriguez should we expect to see in 2024?

Year	IP	ERA	WHIP	BB%	K%	K-BB%	H%	S%	HR/F	FpK%	SwK%	BPV
2021#	81	2.71	0.87	7%	33%	27%	25%	74%	N/A	N/A	N/A	161
2022^	77	2.51	0.92	8%	31%	23%	26%	72%	N/A	N/A	N/A	155
2023+	42	2.01	1.10	11%	28%	17%	25%	86%	N/A	N/A	N/A	106
23MLB	122	4.35	1.34	8%	25%	16%	35%	70%	14%	61%	12.6%	131

#Double-A MLEs
^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
+Triple-A MLEs

As is often the case with big performance swings like this, the reality lies somewhere in the middle:

• Rodriguez was never as bad as he looked during those initial 10 starts in the majors, as his 7.40 ERA and 1.76 WHIP were heavily inflated by a 43% hit rate, 63% strand rate, and 27% HR/F. That's one of the worst trifectas of bad luck you'll ever see from a pitcher. His xERA during that stretch was 4.37, a full three runs lower than his ERA.
• However, while it's tempting to look at his 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the 13 starts he made after returning to the majors and note that those numbers are an awfully good match for his minor league MLEs, his skills weren't quite as elite as they were in the minors, particularly his K%, which was 24% in the second half. He was treated much more kindly by strand rate (76%) and HR/F (4%) during those 13 starts, leaving his xERA at 3.62, a full run higher than his ERA, and close to his overall xERA for the season.
• That said, there were still several positive signs during that 13-start stretch: he reduced his BB% from 10% in the first half to 7% in the second, with support from a 5% xBB%, thanks in part to throwing a lot more first-pitch strikes (53% first half, 66% second); he improved his ground ball rate from 38% in the first half to 52% in the second; and he improved his SwK from 11.5% in the first half to 13.5% in the second, along with an increase in velocity from 96.7 mph to 97.9.
• That second-half SwK was solidly above-average, and would have supported a higher K%. Given his history of higher K% rates in the minors, it's reasonable to think he will show improvement in his strikeout rate in 2024. He also had promising success with two of his pitches, generating a 15.7% SwK on 22.4% usage with his change-up, and a 15.7% SwK on 14.1% usage with his slider.

The 24-year-old Rodriguez has long-term ace upside, and the gains he made in the second half suggest that upside could arrive very soon. Maybe not 2024, but he has a strong case for being at least a $20 pitcher, with a low-to-mid 3s ERA, an above-average WHIP, and likely an above-average strikeout rate. His current 71 ADP suggests many fantasy managers are chasing his upside, so acquiring him at a discount will likely prove tough, but if his 2023 struggles scared off any managers in your league, take advantage of the opportunity.

 

Health continues to be a key for Soler... Jorge Soler (DH, SF) enjoyed a massive rebound season in 2023, hitting nearly as many homers (36) as he hit in the previous two seasons combined (40). Was it a fluky surge, or did the bounceback come with support from his power skills?

Year	PA	HR	xHR	BA	xBA	bb%	ct%	GB/LD/FB	HctX	PX	xPX	HR/F	xHR/F
2019	676	48	51	.265	.270	11%	70%	39/20/41	113	168	140	28%	30%
2020	172	8	10	.228	.222	11%	60%	38/23/39	102	151	159	23%	29%
2021	594	27	33	.223	.234	11%	72%	42/15/43	110	126	122	17%	20%
2022	305	13	14	.207	.227	10%	67%	42/18/40	116	138	133	18%	19%
2023	580	36	35	.250	.260	11%	72%	36/18/46	126	153	156	21%	21%

It was backed by skill, but the biggest factor was likely his health:

• Soler's 2023 power skills were among the best of his career, and nearly an exact match for his surface stats across the board. Look at his xHR, xPX, and xHR/F... it's rare to see full support in every category like that. The other thing to note is that 2023 was very similar to 2021, skill-wise: the 9-HR gap between the two seasons was much smaller going by xHR, and the two xHR/F were very close. This suggests that 35-HR power is a repeatable performance level for him when he's healthy.
• Unfortunately, as his D Health grade in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster attests, staying healthy has been a challenge for him. And injuries were to blame for his lower HR pace in 2022, as back and pelvic issues ended his season in July that year. He addressed them with core-strengthening exercises prior to the 2023 season, which was good, as he has been prone to oblique injuries throughout his career, though that didn't stop him from suffering another oblique injury in September 2023.
• Another positive from the 2023 season was that he restored his contact rate to 72%, matching 2021, with both being his career high for a full season. That, along with the elite power, helped lift his BA and xBA to much more acceptable levels. Since his HctX and FB% were both career-high marks, we should probably expect some mild regression there, and look for a BA somewhere between his career .243 BA and .250 xBA.

The 32-year-old Soler signed a three-year contract with the Giants as a free agent this offseason, and the change in home parks appears fairly neutral, as Marlins Park has a -13% RH HR factor, and Oracle Park comes in at -19%. And during his two seasons with the Marlins, Soler hit 24 HR in 426 PA at home, and 25 HR in 459 PA on the road. If he can get to 500 PA in 2024, he looks like a good bet to deliver 30 HR with a BA that won't hurt you, with a repeat of 2023 possibly within reach.

 

Julien's elite patience helps offset some flaws in his skills... Edouard Julien (2B, MIN) finished 7th in the voting for AL Rookie of the Year in 2023, after batting .263 with 16 HR and an .840 OPS over 408 PA. Can he take another step forward with a full season in the majors in 2024?

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA	xBA	bb%	ct%	GB/LD/FB	HctX	PX	xPX	HR/F	Spd	SB%	SBO
2022#	512	11	12	.244	N/A	14%	64%	N/A	N/A	100	N/A	N/A	104	61%	15%
2023+	170	3	2	.240	N/A	15%	62%	N/A	N/A	123	N/A	N/A	53	100%	4%
23MLB	408	16	3	.263	.247	15%	62%	50/26/24	85	137	112	31%	96	100%	2%

There's a lot to like in his skills, though some mild pullback might be in order:

• Julien's best skill is his elite patience, which helps to offset one of the biggest flaws in his game, his low contact rate. The walks led him to post a .381 OBP in 2023, though a 37% hit rate inflated his batting average about 15 points, per xBA, so we should probably expect a slightly lower BA and OBP for 2024. On the plus side, a penchant for hitting line drives should help his BA floor, as a 31% LD% in Double-A in 2022 and a 24% LD% in Triple-A in 2023 both suggest his 26% rate from the majors is a repeatable skill.
• His power skills came with some mixed signals, as his xPX was lower than his PX, due to a low fly ball rate and a subpar HctX. But his 16 xHR and 31% xHR/F were a spot-on match for his surface stats. Maintaining a 30+% HR/F might prove difficult over a larger sample, as that's pretty exclusive territory, but even a slide into the mid-to-high 20s should allow him to make a run at 20 HR over a full season. And his patience could again prove to be an asset that helps him to develop further power in the years to come, though he'll also need to hit more fly balls and fewer grounders.
• Though his Spd scores aren't anything special, and his 40th percentile Statcast sprint speed is not so hot, he's shown an ability to generate a handful of steals, with his 2023 SB% marks suggesting he was quite good at picking his spots. With his high OBP, opportunities should remain plentiful, which should keep him in the 5-10 SB range.
• Another area of concern is his platoon splits. His sample size against LHP was small in 2023 (just 48 PA), but it was alarmingly bad: a .196 BA, .447 OPS, 4% BB%, 65% ct%, and a 21 PX. The Twins plan to platoon him with Kyle Farmer for now, so he might not get much of a chance to test his skills further in 2024, and that will put a slightly lower ceiling on his PA total.

Coming into 2023, there were concerns about Julien's defense, but he performed better than expected at second base, and the Twins feel more confident about playing him there. As he enters his age-25 season, he looks ready to continue to build on his power and patience, giving him a shot at being a Top 15 second baseman in fantasy, with higher value in OBP leagues and leagues with daily transactions that will give you the flexibility to sit him when the Twins are facing a lefty.

 

Burleson's stealthy skill growth could make him worthy of speculation... Lost among the many excellent rookie seasons in 2024 was a quieter, less successful effort from Alec Burleson (LF, STL), who, with a .244 BA, .690 OPS, and 8 HR in 344 PA, didn't make much of a fantasy impact. Is there any reason to give him a second look?

Year	PA	HR	xHR	BA	xBA	bb%	ct%	GB/LD/FB	HctX	PX	xPX	HR/F	xHR/F
2021^	453	11	N/A	.214	N/A	5%	77%	N/A	N/A	66	N/A	N/A	N/A
2022+	469	12	N/A	.259	N/A	4%	82%	N/A	N/A	79	N/A	N/A	N/A
22MLB	53	1	2	.188	.232	9%	80%	50/21/29	100	48	112	9%	18%
2023	344	8	10	.244	.276	7%	86%	41/22/37	109	83	96	8%	10%

^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
+Triple-A MLEs

There were more positives here than you might expect:

• First off, Burleson's .244 batting average was dragged down by an unlucky 26% hit rate. He owned an elite contact rate (after years of steady growth in that area), posted an above-average line-drive rate, and made plus hard contact, leaving his xBA a little over 30 points higher. And in the second half, he hit .268 with a .277 xBA, further suggesting that upside is attainable.
• There was also the suggesting of further upside in his power skills, as his xHR, xPX, and xHR/F were all higher than his standard numbers in those categories. And once again, in the second half, he showed improvement, lifting his HctX to 119, his xPX to 105, and his xHR/F to 12%. His power isn't elite—both his full-season and second-half xHR figures project out to 15 HR over 500 PA—but the growth is an encouraging sign.
• The one drawback is that he struggled against left-handed pitching (albeit in a very small sample, only 30 PA), with a 78% contact rate and 29 PX, and while his .259 BA against lefties didn't look too shabby, it was inflated by a 33% hit rate. So there's a good chance he'll be limited to a platoon role against right-handers.

Earlier this spring, appeared that the 25-year-old Burleson might be stuck on the St. Louis bench this season, but with Lars Nootbaar questionable for Opening Day due to fractures in his rib cage, there could be some playing time opening up for Burleson in April. His current 695 ADP suggests he could be readily available in a lot of leagues, and he could be worth a look in deep leagues as a bit of a speculative sleeper in the hopes that his skills eventually win him a larger role.

 

Shoulder injury hid Schreiber's closer-worthy skills... After a bit of a breakout season in 2022 that included 8 saves, John Schreiber (RHP, KC) took a step backward in 2023, posting a higher ERA (3.86) and WHIP (1.41) while also missing two months with a shoulder injury. Is there reason to think he can get back to his 2022 skills?

Year	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	BB%	K%	K-BB%	GB/LD/FB	H%	S%	SwK%	BPV
2019	13	6.23	1.54	3.46	6%	32%	25%	37/31/31	45%	64%	16.0%	198
2020	16	6.32	1.47	4.96	6%	20%	14%	32/28/40	36%	57%	7.8%	105
2021+	66	3.54	1.57	N/A	10%	17%	8%	N/A	35%	77%	N/A	62
2022	65	2.22	0.98	2.86	7%	29%	21%	56/13/31	28%	79%	14.1%	171
2023	47	3.86	1.41	4.34	12%	26%	14%	42/19/39	31%	77%	10.7%	89

+Triple-A MLEs

His first-half skills from 2023 suggest that he can:

• The two biggest drivers of Schreiber's 2022 success were strong gains in his K% and SwK, and an elite ground ball rate. And while it looks like all of those gains retreated in 2023, he actually was repeating them for the first six weeks of the season, posting a 2.12 ERA with a 30% K%, 13.3% SwK, and 59% GB%. After he came back from the shoulder strain that kept him out of action for two months, he wasn't the same pitcher, as his ERA ballooned to 4.85 while his strikeout skills dropped to a 24% K% and 9.3% SwK, and his GB% plummeted to 34%. It seems reasonable to think that was injury-related.
• His control also took a step backward in 2023, to a career-worst rate, but his xBB% stayed at 8%, the same as it was in 2022, suggesting that the rise in walks was a bit fluky. He has shown a tendency to have control issues vs. left-handed batters, posting an 11% BB% against them in 2022, and 18% in 2023. He'll need to find a way to address that to have sustained success in the bullpen.
• Perhaps with that in mind, Schreiber went to Driveline Baseball after the 2023 season ended, and was working on developing a cutter that he could add to his repertoire, which already included a slider, four-seam fastball, sinker, and a change-up. The slider was his best strikeout pitch in 2022 (16.1% SwK), but he also struggled to consistently throw it for strikes (42% Ball%).

The 30-year-old Schreiber was traded from Boston to Kansas City in February, where he looks to be in line for a high-leverage role right away. Current presumed closer Will Smith had a 4.33 xERA in 2023, so he's far from a lock to hold down the role for the entire season. Schreiber's 2022 skills were very closer-worthy, and the early 2023 sample suggested he was maintaining them, giving him some sleeper appeal for deep league managers looking for a speculative saves target. With a 737 ADP, there's a good chance he's available in a lot of leagues.

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