Machado, R. Suarez, M. Chapman, Manaea, Donovan

Machado looks to rebound from a “down” year … The tennis elbow Manny Machado (3B, SD) has dealt with for most of the past two seasons finally worsened to the point where he was limited to DH for the final several weeks of the 2023 season and ultimately required right elbow extensor tendon repair surgery on October 3. Despite that ailment and a small fracture in his left hand that sidelined him for the second half of May, he still managed to bat .258 with 30 HR in 601 PA, but his R$ crashed from $37 R$ in 2022 to $19 R$ in 2023. How are things under the hood?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	PX/xPX	HR/F	Brl%	SB	Spd	SBA
2019	661	32/26	.256/.251	10/78	42/17/41	28	101/121	17%	8%	5	99	5%
2020	254	16/14	.304/.294	10/83	37/22/41	30	134/108	21%	11%	6	106	14%
2021	640	28/30	.278/.271	10/82	39/20/41	30	112/123	15%	13%	12	97	9%
2022	644	32/23	.298/.274	10/77	38/21/42	34	146/127	17%	10%	9	92	6%
2023	601	30/26	.258/.251	8/80	40/15/45	27	108/117	15%	10%	3	86	4%
2H23	309	19/17	.273/.265	11/81	36/17/47	28	123/134	18%	14%	0	73	1%

Overall, not that different from what we’re accustomed to seeing:

• The plate skills were fine, but a career-low h% dragged down his BA. 
• The power metrics were right in line with past performance and backed near-30 HR output.
• After posting an 84% SB% in 25 attempts in 2021-22, his SB% dipped to 60% in five attempts. Given his recent SBA% trend, it’s probably best not to count on more than 5 SB.
• Machado’s 2H line was impressive, especially considering he was playing through injury. If that FB% holds, a run at 35 HR might be within reach.
• He has logged eight straight 600+PA seasons, excluding the abbreviated 2020 season.

On the surface, it would appear that Machado had a down year, but it was largely driven by an unfortunate h%. The 2H skills were as strong as ever, aside from the stolen base component, and that bodes well for 2024. The 31-year-old is on track to be ready for Opening Day, even if he is relegated to DH duties for a bit, and is a solid choice near his 62 ADP.

 

Suarez hopes for better health … The Padres signed Robert Suarez (RHP, SD) to a five-year, $46 million contract in November 2022, but didn’t get to see much of him in 2023 as right elbow inflammation shelved him until July 21. He wound up posting a 4.23 ERA in just 28 IP. How are the underlying skills?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2020^	52	2.79/2.81	11%/22%	N/A	N/A	N/A	26%/78%	N/A	N/A	99
2021^	62	1.44/1.19	4%/24%	N/A	N/A	N/A	26%/81%	N/A	N/A	197
2022	48	2.27/3.07	11%/32%	8%	12.1%	43/22/35	25%/83%	11%	97.7	134
2023	28	4.23/3.89	9%/22%	7%	12.5%	49/22/30	17%/57%	18%	97.6	89

^Foreign MLEs

Not as strong as they were in 2022:

• Though he boasted an impressive K% in 2022, it wasn’t supported by SwK% (25% xK%), so it wasn’t a surprise to see K% regression. His 2023 SwK% (27% xK%) tells us there was a bit of an over-correction.
• It’s great to see that his velocity matched pre-injury level.
• The xBB% column suggests a little more BB% upside.
• The uptick in GB% was nice to see. He garnered an increased GB% on each of his main three offerings, but the sinker was the standout at 68% (four-seam fastball/change-up/sinker usage: 37%/34%/24%). 
• It’s safe to chalk up the strange 2023 H%/S% and HR/F combination to small sample quirkiness.

While there is some concern due to the elbow issues that plagued Suarez in 2023, he has displayed decent skills at the MLB level when healthy. At this point, the 33-year-old appears to be the favorite to begin 2024 as the primary closer for the Padres. There is risk, but his 249 ADP leaves room for profit potential.

 

Chapman could be undervalued … Matt Chapman (3B, SF) amassed a .258 batting average and 14 HR in 442 PA through the end of July, but mustered a measly .185 batting average and 3 HR in 143 PA over the rest of the season. He then signed a three-year, $54 million contract with the Giants in early March. What can we expect in 2024?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	HR/F	xHR/F	Brl%	Spd
2019	670	36/36	.249/.261	11/75	41/15/43	27	117	137/107	19%	19%	12%	101
2020	152	10/12	.232/.244	5/62	26/24/51	29	104	198/150	22%	27%	18%	109
2021	622	27/29	.210/.195	13/62	34/15/52	28	76	126/130	16%	17%	14%	131
2022	621	27/30	.229/.230	11/68	34/17/49	28	120	142/154	15%	17%	13%	95
2023	581	17/28	.240/.224	11/68	35/16/49	32	111	131/140	10%	16%	17%	116

A bounceback seems likely:

• While his HR total crashed, he hit lots of flyballs and the power metrics remained strong, including a 98th percentile Brl% and 100th percentile HH%. Both xHR and xHR/F highlight how unlucky he was and indicate 30 HR potential is still present.
• The 2023 BA recovery wasn’t fully backed by xBA, but that’s largely due to the poor August/September (.237 xBA in 344 PA in 1H). 
• A 78th percentile bb% gives his OBP a boost.
• He has decent Spd, but rarely runs and owns a lifetime 48% SB% (67% SB% in 2023), so consider any SB a bonus.

A right middle finger sprain limited Chapman to just 36 games over the final two months of the 2023 season and it’s safe to assume it played a part in those late season struggles. Though the move to pitcher-friendly San Francisco isn’t a plus (Oracle Park: -19% RHB HR), he has shown the power skills to support 25+ HR and it could come with another .240-ish BA. That's not too shabby near his 275 ADP.

 

Manaea is worth a look … Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM) inked a two-year contract with the Mets In January 2024 after opting out of his deal with the Giants. He finished 2023 with 4.44 ERA in 118 IP, with 71 of those IP coming as a bulk reliever. As he moves back to full-time starter, what is his 2024 outlook?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2019*	58	2.54/2.14	6%/30%	7%	12.2%	41/18/41	22%/80%	11%	89.8	153
2020	54	4.50/3.93	4%/20%	6%	10.2%	50/20/29	32%/66%	14%	90.4	143
2021	179	3.91/3.74	5%/26%	5%	13.2%	42/22/36	33%/73%	14%	92.2	153
2022	158	4.96/4.10	7%/23%	6%	12.5%	38/19/43	30%/67%	15%	91.2	109
2023	118	4.44/3.99	8%/26%	6%	11.4%	41/22/37	31%/67%	12%	93.6	122

This is a decent collection of skills:

• After spending time at Driveline following the 2022 season, he posted career-high velocity in 2023. Most of that uptick stuck in September when he made four starts (93.0 mph, which would’ve still been a career-high). 
• Though his K% bounced back, it didn’t come with SwK% support (22% xK%).
• His history of BB% and xBB% indicate there’s no reason for worry in that area.
• An unfortunate S% has artificially damaged his ERA in 2022-23, as evidenced by xERA.

Manaea added a sweeper to his pitch mix in 2023 with good results, but lost his feel for the pitch and essentially didn’t throw it in September. He reportedly went back to Driveline after the 2023 season to work on his pitch mix and will head into 2024 with an improved change-up and a new cutter that could help him vR (2023: 16% K-BB%, .773 OPS; lifetime: 15% K-BB%, .755 OPS). The 32-year-old isn’t flashy, but he can be useful near his ADP (355 since January 1).

 

Can Donovan build upon 2023? … Brendan Donovan (2B/OF, STL) made off-season adjustments aiming to improve contact quality in 2023 and saw positive results before suffering a right elbow injury in June that ultimately required an August internal brace procedure to repair a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. Did the underlying skills support his improved performance?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	HR/F	Brl%	SB	Spd	SBA
2022*	530	6/6	.274/.266	12/82	53/24/24	32	95	64/72	7%	3%	2	102	3%
2023	371	11/9	.284/.273	9/84	46/23/30	31	120	70/110	13%	6%	5	111	5%

For the most part, yes:

• The quality of contact was much better, as evidenced by HctX, Brl%, and xPX. His GB% caps HR potential, but even as is, 15 HR could be within reach.
• His plate skills continue to be a strength. Though the skills say a .300 BA probably isn’t in the cards, they do support a .275-ish BA.
• Given Donovan’s SBA% and 44th percentile sprint speed, his SB upside seems limited.
• Keep an eye on his performance vL as it could cost him playing time. It waned in 2023, but we’re still talking about a small sample (2022: .749 OPS in 77 PA; 2023: .549 OPS in 63 PA). 

The adjustments Donovan made paid off in terms of improved skills and production. Barring further modifications, there isn’t a ton of upside here. However, he can certainly be useful, particularly considering his ability to play multiple positions.  

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